Well I suppose I was due a loss, as I have not posted a loss since the 7th November.
I lost -£37.69 on the Birmingham Vs Aston Villa Carling cup Quarter Final. I have analysed the trades to see if I made any stupid mistakes, and I don't think I did really.
Before the game I thought it would be tight as Birmingham don't concede many goals at home and have only lost 1 game at home in a year. Aston Villa do concede a few goals, but don't score many away either, so I thought the game would be 0-0, so did not lay the draw. So from the start I backed the 0-0 for 5% of bank. The first ten minutes Aston Villa were on top but neither keeper had been troubled, then Birmingham got a penalty and scored, so that was not a good start. Then I layed the draw when Birmingham were 1-0 up, as they don't concede many goals. So I layed the draw at 3.7. Then Aston Villa go and score. I did not panic and I layed the draw again at about 2.7. This let me stay in the game for a longer period of time for a winning goal. To be fair I should have listened to the badger as he always stays in to the end when it is 1-1. Anyway I hedged out at the 80 minutes mark for 10% loss of bank, and yes you guessed it, Birmingham scored 2 minutes later.
In conclusion I think I did trade sensibly but was a little unlucky in this one.
I know that feeling well.
ReplyDeleteI do a lot of football trading and it is so frustrating when you think you are doing the right thing by the book, only to find that if you hadn't traded out for the loss, your bet/trade would have come in.
As someone of bad discipline myself, I think you are on the right tracks to work with a percentage of your bank.
I'm forever neglecting that rule as I fancy a result to come in, I really need to stop.
I also recently found myself thinking I needed to trade everyday, I'm now trying to only trade on a game that I (think I) know something about. I try and stay away from Europa, Carling Cup, etc as well, as managers don't always put out their strongest teams and sometimes I wonder if they really want to win the games.
Keep going though, it's a learning curve. When you think about it, in most other walks of life you could to be doing something for years before you master it.
Is Betfair really any different? I don't think it is, although I'm guilty of expecting myself to already be an expert.
I don't know about you, but I find it all a real mental challenge and difficult to discipline myself.
Regards
Dean @ Cricket Betting Blog