Brighton Vs Notts County

Hi folks,

Brighton (1) Vs Notts County (17)

Top of the table Brighton are in a rich vein of form at the moment winning 7 of the last 8 matches. Their only loss was against MK Dons, who are also in a rich vein of form and are very difficult to beat. Brighton have won their last 4 home games beating 2 top half teams and 2 bottom half teams. scoring 14 goals and conceding 4 in the process. Over the last 8 matches they have average 2.125 goals per game and conceded 0.625 goals per game. They have kept 62.5% clean sheets and failed to score 12.5% of the time. For their last 4 home games they have averaged 3.5 goals per game and conceded 1 goal per game. They have kept 50% clean sheets and failed to score 0% of the time.

Notts county on the other hand have only won 3 of their last 8 matches. However, the 3 games they won were against bottom half teams. They have only scored 2 goals in the last 8 matches. However, they have only conceded 6. Their last 4 away games they have only won 1 and that again was against a bottom half team. Over the last 8 matches they have averaged 0.25 goals per game and conceded 0.75 goal per game. They have kept clean sheets 37.5% of the time and failed to score 50% of the time. For their last 4 away games they have averaged 0.5 goals per game and conceded 1 goal per game. They have kept clean sheets 25% of the time and failed to score 50% of the time.

The last four games between the two teams have resulted in 2 wins for Brighton and 2 draws.

I think Brighton will be too strong for Notts County and should win this game. I will lay the draw with a stop loss of 1.9.

If the game was on TV I might have laid over 2.5 goals and covered the 2-1, 1-2 scorelines as Notts County don't concede many goals, certainly over recent weeks. The problem they have is they just don't score enough.


Brighton 1 Notts County 0

The game was not live on TV so I have no idea whether the game was open or a tight affair. I managed to hedge out when Brighton scored for a profit. It is a shame this game was not on TV as I would have laid over 2.5 goals and backed the 2-1 and 1-2 and locked in some more profit. Although I thought Brighton would win, I knew it would not be a high scoring game as Notts County have a good defense, their problem is scoring goals.
Happy Trading