Wednesday's Matches

Hi folks,

Well another two Champions League games tonight, here are my thoughts.

Chelsea Vs Man Utd.

I think this game will be a tight one. Both teams are fairly evenly matched. Rio Ferdinand and Vidic are back for Man Utd. If they are on their game, it will make Man Utd very difficult to break down.

Chelsea's record in the Champions league this season stands at P8W6D1L1. They have scored 16 goals (2gpg) and conceded 4 (0.5gpg). They have kept clean sheets 50% of the time and failed to score in 2 of the 8 matches. Also 37.5% of their games have been over 2.5 goals. Chelsea have not really been tested, most of the games were against average opposition. They only lost one game, and that was against Marseille away 1-0. Their home form for the tournament has been W3D1. They have scored 8 goals (2gpg) and conceded 2 (0.5gpg). Again they have kept 50% clean sheets and failed to score in 1 game.

Man Utd's record is P8W5D3L0. They have scored 9 goals (1.125gpg) and conceded 2 (0.25gpg). They have kept 75% clean sheets and failed to scored on 2 occasions. The number of games over 2.5 goals has been 25%. Their away form has been W3D1, and they have scored only 5 goals (1.25gpg) but conceded 0. They have kept 4/4 cleans sheets, however, the standard of opposition, like Chelsea was not great, with the exception of maybe Valencia. They have also failed to score in 1 game.

Head to heads at Stamford bridge is definitely with Chelsea. In the last 10 matches, Chelsea have won 6. There has been 3 draws and 1 Man Utd win. Also 50% of these games have been over 2.5 goals.

I think for this game I will look to trade the over/under 2.5 goals market. I don't think I will risk laying the draw, as this game could turn out to be 0-0. In their combined Champions league games this season there have been 4/16 games with more than 2.5 goals (25%). So I think I will lay over 2.5 goals and ride that for 15-20 mins.

Barcelona Vs Shakhter

Barcelona have P8W5D2L1 in the champions league this season. They have scored 18 (2.25gpg) and conceded 6 (0.75gpg). They have kept 3/8 clean sheets (37.5%) and have never failed to score. Their home record has been P4W4. They have scored 12 (3gpg) at home and conceded 2(0.5gpg). They have kept 2/4 clean sheets (50%) and never failed to score. 50% of their home games have been over 2.5 goals. The only game they lost was away to Arsenal.

Shakhter have P8W7D0L1 in the champions league this season. They have scored 19 (2.25gpg) and conceded 8 (1gpg). They have kept 5/8 clean sheets (62.5%) and have never failed to score. Their away record is P4W3L1. They have scored 10 (2.5gpg) and conceded 7(1.75gpg). They have kept 2/4 clean sheets (50%) and have never failed to score. All of their games have been over 2.5 goals.

Head to head at the Nou Camp have been 2 wins to Barcelona and 1 win to Shakhter. All the games have been over 2.5 goals.

I cannot see Barcelona slipping up in this game and I will be laying under 2.5 goals for this game

Happy Trading

Update

Well both games went to plan, I hedged out in the over 2.5 goal market in the Man Utd game for a £7.70 profit. I also hedged out of the under 2.5 goal market in the Barcelona game for a £6.86 profit. In hindsight I should have stayed in the Barcelona market as the game finished 5-1, but that is not the name of the game.
I also managed to make £1.38 in the match market for the Chelsea Vs Man Utd game.

So Total profit for tonight was £15.94