Sunday Early Matches

Hi folks,

There are 4 early matches this Sunday morning, that are on the TV.

Getafe Vs Vallecano in the Spanish League
Atalanta Vs Palermo in the Italian League
PSV Vs Ajax in the Dutch League
Rangers Vs Celtic in the Scottish League

I am not getting involved in the Spanish match or the Italian match as those leagues have only just started, so we need them to settle down first.

I have looked at the stats for the PSV Vs Ajax game, and they are too hard to separate. Last season this fixture produced a 0-0, but the two seasons before that it was a goal feast. If the odds for the two sides were closer together I would lay the draw, but the odds on Betfair have PSV as being the favourite. Both teams are scoring goals for fun, but Ajax have failed to keep 1 clean sheet this season, were as PSV have 40% clean sheets. Even taking that into account I cannot say with a high degree of probability that PSV would take the lead or be ahead in the match at some point, as Ajax have scored more goals, so I am not laying the draw. I may watch the match and wait for an opportunity, perhaps in the correct score market.

Rangers Vs Celtic.

Looking at the stats the last 26 matches at Ibrox between these two sides have produced 1 0-0. Looking at my spreadsheet the success rate for Rangers in this match is 66%. This equates to a 58% chance for Rangers and a 28% chance of the draw and a 20% chance for Celtic. The goal expectancy for the match is 2.47.

At Ibrox in the last 11 seasons Rangers have won 10, there has been 3 draws and Celtic have won 9 matches. So fairly even. However, the odds on betfair are very even, so we can lay the draw, as it does not matter who scores first, and based on the fact that there has only been 1 0-0 between these teams in the last 26 matches, that is what I am going to do.

Happy Trading

UPDATE:- Well the game went pretty much as I expected and I hedged out for a 25% ROI