7th Feb 2012

7:45pm Birmingham Vs Portsmouth

Tonight’s championship match pits an in-form Birmingham, who are looking for promotion, against a struggling Portsmouth. Birmingham can leap to 3^rd place with a win tonight. Let’s have a look at the stats.

OVERALL

Birmingham have won 13 of the 28 matches this season. They have drawn 8 and lost 7. They have scored 46 goals (1.64gpg) and conceded 27 (0.96gpg). They have managed 10 clean sheets and scored in 23 matches. Birmingham have only lost 1 game in the last 10 (6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss). Six of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals, 4 out of the last 5 have been over 2.5 goals.

Portsmouth have won 9 of the 27 matches this season. They have drawn 7 and lost 11. They have scored 32 goals (1.19gpg) and conceded 29 (1.07gpg). They have managed 9 clean sheets and scored in 18 matches.  Portsmouth have lost two of the last three and lost 3 of the last 6. They have only won 2 of the last 6 matches. Only three of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Although their last two matches were over 2.5 goals.

CURRENT FORM

Birmingham have won 4 in the last six. They have drawn 2 and lost 0. They have scored 16 goals (2.67gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept three clean sheets and scored in 5 matches.

Portsmouth have won 2 in the last six. They have drawn 1 and lost 3. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1.0gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches.

HOME VS AWAY FORM

Birmingham have won 4 of their last 6 home games. They have drawn 2 and lost 0. They have scored 11 goals (1.83gpg) and conceded 3 (0.5gpg). They have only kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 matches.  Four of their last 6 home games have been over 2.5 goals.

Portsmouth have won 2 of their last 6 away games. They have drawn 1 and lost 3. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 7 (1.17gpg). They have only kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches. Two of their last 6 away games have been over 2.5 goals.

H2H’s

Birmingham have a good recent record against Portsmouth, winning 4 of their last 10 encounters, and 3 of the last 5 home encounters. Portsmouth have won 3 of the last 10 encounters, but only 1 away victory in the last 5. Only 4 of the last 10 matches between these two teams has yielded over 2.5 goals. And only ones of the last 5 matches at Birmingham has been over 2.5 goals.

GENERAL

I have the success rate for this match as 74%. This equates to a 61% chance of a Birmingham win, 26% chance of a draw and a 13% chance of a Portsmouth win. The goal expectancy is 2.45. The % chance of the game finishing 0-0 is 9.0%, and the % chance of Birmingham scoring first is 62%.

Portsmouth score first in 9/14 of their home matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 8 of those matches (89%). They have conceded first in 3/14 home matches, and when conceding first they have only won once, but have not lost (2 Draws).

Portsmouth have scored first in 4/14 of their away matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 2 of those matches (50%) (Drew 1, lost 1). They have conceded first in 8/14 away matches, and when conceding first they have won 0 (0%) and drawn 1 and lost 7.

Birmingham average 2.29 pts at home, Portsmouth average 0.71pts away. Birmingham have won 64.3% of their home games and Portsmouth have won 14.3% of their away games. Birmingham have scored 78.6% of goals in their games. Portsmouth have scored 40.63% of goals in their games. Birmingham score 70% of first half goals in their games. Portsmouth score 31.25% or first half goals in their games. Birmingham score 83.3% of second half goals in their games. Portsmouth score 50% of second half goals in their games. Birmingham have the edge with total shots % per game at 64.4% vs Portsmouth’s 46.8%. Birmingham have a 64.2% of shots on target vs Portsmouth’s 40.2%.

VERDICT

Birmingham have proven me wrong this season. They had a lot of turmoil to deal with at the beginning of the season on and off the pitch. Also their extended run in the Europa league, left them languishing around mid-table with lots of games in-hand. However, they have now virtually caught up and are the in-form team in the league. Looking at the stats, they have the edge in almost all departments for tonight’s game. They have not lost a home game all season and Chris Hughton has done an excellent job. I think I will look to lay the draw in this game. I think I will also look to lay over 2.5 goals as Portsmouth do not concede lots of goals and will try and keep it tight.