French Open - Stosur Vs Errani

I thought I would post my thoughts on today's tennis matches, just to give people an idea of what I look at. I am a newbie at this, and these are just my thoughts, looking at the stats.

Today is the women's semi-final day.

Stosur Vs Errani

Stosur is ranked number 6 in the world and Errani is ranked 24 in the world. They have played each other 5 times and Stosur has won all 5. They have only played on clay once, and that was a few weeks ago in Rome, Stosur won in two sets. Stosur has an 18-4 record on clay this season. She has lost to Sharapova and Serena Williams, both top 10 players. However, she has lost to Venus Williams and Hradecka on clay this season as well. With the exception of Rome, where she was defeated in the 3^rd round, she has reached the ¼ final or semi-final in her last 3 clay court tournaments. During the French Open she has not dropped a set and her forehand has been working very well.

Errani has a 23-3 record on clay this season. She has lost to Stosur, A. Radwanska (both top 10 players) and Tsurenko. She has played 5 clay court tournaments this season and has won 3 of them. However, one of the tournaments that she won, she did not play any players inside the top fifty. The other two tournaments she won, she did not play any players in the top 10. This season on clay she has played 3 top 10 players and only won 1, and that was Kerber in the last round of the French Open. In this French Open she has dropped only 2 sets.

Having watched Errani play in the last couple of rounds, she reminds me of Ferrer, she chases everything down and is very gutsy and does not give in, she always looks to make her opponent play one more shot. In the last round against Kerber, she played a lot of looping shots and mixed it up well. Kerber could not cope. I am not sure looping shots will work against Stosur, especially on the forehand side.

Errani has had a tremendous season, especially on clay. However, I think Stosur has the edge here. I think it will be 3 sets. I will look to back Stosur from the start. If she goes a break up and holds serve I hedge out for a profit. If she loses the 1 set set I will back her again in the second set, but only for the 1^st few games looking for the break.

Well there was 3 sets and I managed to make a 30% ROI. However, Errani won in 3 sets. Brilliant play from her. Errani won a tight 1 set and then Stosur came back and won the second set 6-1. Errani then got a 3-0 lead in the 3rd set, but Stosur pulled it back to 3-3 and I thought that the match was Stosur's. However, Errani broke again and Stosur made too many errors. Great play to the underdog. Yet again Stosur losses when she is the favourite.