Friday Night Matches

Several matches on tonight, let's have a look at the stats

Middlesbrough Vs Doncaster

Middlesbrough have won 3/12 home matches, drawn 6 and lost 3
Doncaster have won 3/12 away matches, drawn 5 and lost 4

True odds should be Middlesbrough 3.43, draw 2.18, Doncaster 4.00

Middlesbrough have won 6/15 home matches against grade 'D', drawn 7 and lost 2
Doncaster have won 0/6 away matches against grade 'C', drawn 1 and lost 5

So graded stats support Middlesbrough. However, draw odds are 2.63.
Also Middlesbrough are without a Manager and are struggling at home at the moment. so I will not take on the match market for this match

1st half goals, there is no real value I can find in this one

2nd half goals:- 10/12 home matches for Middlesbrough have produced a 2nd half goal and 10/12 away matches for Doncaster have produced a 2nd half goal. So the odds for laying the HT score should be around 5.88

12/15 home matches for Middlesbrough against 'D' grade have produced a 2nd half goal and 6/6 Doncaster away matches against 'C' graded have produced a 2nd half goal. So the odds for laying the HT score should be around 7.14.

So if the HT current score odds are 4.5 or less I will lay them.

Over/under markets: I can't really find any value here

Stuttgart Vs Nurnberg

Most of the stats for this one are in Stuttgart's favour for this. However, there is no value for LTD odds. Also there is no value for 1st half goals or 2nd half goals or over/unders

Nijmegen Vs Heerenveen

Most of the stats for this one are in Heerenveen's favour.

Nijmegen have won 1/12 home matches, drawn 3 and lost 8
Heerenveen have won 4/12 away matches, drawn 4 and lost 4

True odds should be Nijmegen 4.80, draw 3.43, Heerenveen 2.00

Nijmegen have won 2/8 home matches against 'B' grade, drawn 0 and lost 6
Heerenveen have won 7/12 away matches against 'C' grade, drawn 2 and lost 3

So graded stats also support Heerenveen and draw odds should be 10

H2H's favour Heerenveen, however there has been 4 draw in the last 10 meetings which is higher than average. The actual odds are Nijmegen 3.25, draw 3.9, Heerenveen 2.24

The graded stats suggest value in LTD, however the H2H draws does concern me. I think there could be value in laying Nijmegen and that is what I will do

2nd Half goals:- 11/12 Nijmegen home matches have produced a goal in the 2nd half and 10/12 Heerenveen away matches have produced a goal in the 2nd half. So the odds for laying the HT score should be around 8.0

8/8 Nijmegen home matches against 'B' grade have produced a goal in the 2nd half and 8/12 Heerenveen away matches against 'C' grade have produced a goal in the 2nd half. SO the odds for laying the HT score should be around 5.0

So there could be some value in laying the HT score

Overs/under I can find no value

Nantes Vs Lille

The stats for this one are mixed and I also don't have any graded stats for Nantes as the last time they were in the French top flight was 2008. Also the odds for the match are fairly even with no favourite. Also the H2H data has 3 draws in the last 10 with 2 in the last 5 home matches for Nantes, so I will not get involved in the match market for this one.

No value in 1st half goals or 2nd half goals with a tight game in prospect looking at the H2H's results. Also no real value in overs/unders