Derby Vs Wolves

Hi folks,

I have not really posted much recently and I have not traded much recently either as I have been busy with the house. I need to get back into gear.

Right the early kick-off in the championship is Derby Vs Wolves, two teams in the hunt for promotion. Let's have a look at the stats.

Derby's last 16 matches reads (W8D5L3). They have scored in 14/16 and conceded in 7/16. They have scored 28 goals and conceded 16 goals.
Wolves last 16 matches reads (W7D6L3). They have scored in 13/16 and conceded in 7/16. They have scored 22 goals and conceded 17 goals.
Derby's last 6 matches reads  (W3D1L2). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 3/6. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 6 goals.
Wolves last 6 matches reads (W2D3L1). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 2/6. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 8 goals.
Derby's last 12 home matches reads (W8D3L1). They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 27 goals and conceded 12 goals.
Wolves last 12 away matches reads (W3D4L5). They have scored in 8/12 and conceded in 10/12. They have scored 15 goals and conceded 19 goals.
Derby have only lost 1 of the last 6 home matches and that was to Wigan.
Wolves have only lost 1 of the last 6 away matches, but they have drawn 4.

The last 10H2H's reads H1D4A5
At Derby reads H0D2L4

The graded analysis for Derby reads (W12D2L0) against 'D' graded sides. They have scored in 13/14 and conceded in 7/14. They have scored 31 goals and conceded 9 goals.
The graded analysis for Wolves reads (W1D0L5) against 'B' graded sides. They have scored in 4/6 and conceded in 6/6. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 11 goals.

As far as I can see there is no value in LTD as this is currently 3.8 and I rate it around 3.4. Based on the majority of the stats this could be a tough tight match and there does appear to be value in laying wolves as their away form has not been good with respect to wins. However, the only nagging doubt is the recent H2H's at Derby, which clearly favour Wolves.

However, I will do a small lay on wolves, for a liability of 2.5%

I will also do a small back of the 0-0 and the 1-1 with a total liability of 2.5%