World Cup Day 1

Hi Folks,

Just though I would jot down my thoughts for todays games. I am in work for the first game, so I will not be able to do any trading on this game.

South Africa Vs Mexico

If I was going to trade in this match it would have caught me in two minds. Both teams are evenly matched in terms of odds, so laying the draw would have been an option. However, there is one important stat to examine.

8 out of the last 11 opening world cup matches have had 1 goal or less in them. The opening matches tend to be a bit of a let down.

However, on the flip side both these teams would want to get off to a good start and win, as you could argue that France and Uruguay, on paper, are the two best teams in this group. So South Africa and Mexico might be thinking that we need to get three points out of this game.

I must admit that I have not seen South Africa play, but they have got home advantage, which should never be underestimated, also they do have an excellent home record recently.

I have watched Mexico against England recently and against Italy. Against England they were terrible defensively, but did look comfortable on the ball, but lacked the killer touch in front of goal. However, when they played Italy, their defence looked alot better and they looked good going forward, but they did miss lots of chances. However, the Italy they played looked old and were poor.

In recent games both teams score goals and mexico do have a tendency to leak goals. Mexico have scored in each of their last 6 matches, but conceded in 4 of them matches. South Africa on the other had have scored in every game and only conceded in 2. However, you could argue that the opposition was not great.

If I was trading this game I think I might have looked to lay the draw (stop loss 5% of bank, i.e when odds go down to 1.9). I would then watch the first ten mins of the match. If the game is looking a low tempo affair, then I would trade on the 0-0 and the under/over 2.5 goals and 3.5 goals to try and create a free bet on the lay the draw.

Uruguay Vs France

I may be wrong but this game could have 0-0 written all over it. The last two matches between these two teams were 0-0. France have got quite a tight defence, they have only conceded two goals in the last 5 games. However, they have only scored 5 goals in the last 5 games, so hardly prolific. Uruguay have conceded 4 in 5 matches and only scored 6.

I think both teams will not want to lose this game, so would be happy with a draw, as on paper this will be the hardest game they will play. So I will not be laying the draw on this game from the start. I will trade the 0-0 for the first 15 mins or so.

Well that concludes my ramblings, they are just my thoughts and nothing else. I maybe wrong, I have been before!!!!

Bye for now.