Blackburn Vs Arsenal

The early kick-off today is between Blackburn and Arsenal. These two teams have started the season with one problem or another. Lets take a look some stats.

Blackburn have won 2 of their last 6 matches, scoring 7 goals and conceding 10, with no clean sheets. They have also failed to score in 1 of the last 6 matches and have lost 3 of those matches. Arsenal have won 1 of their last 6 matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 14, with 2 clean sheets. They have also failed to score in 2 of their last 6 matches and have lost 3 of those matches.

If we compare the last 6 home games of Blackburn against the last 6 Arsenal away games we find that Blackburn have won 1 of their last 6 matches, scoring just 4 goals and conceding 6, with 1 clean sheet. They have also failed to score in 2 of their last 6 home games, and have lost 3 of those matches. Arsenals last 6 away games have yielded no wins. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 18, with 1 clean sheet. They have failed to score in 3 of their last 6 away matches and have lost 3 of those matches.

If we look at the 4 games played so far this season Blackburn have a success rate of 12.5% vs Arsenal's 37.5%. Based on this the success rate for Blackburn in today's game is just 18%, this equates to a 7% chance of a Blackburn win, a 23% chance of a draw and a 71% chance of an Arsenal win.

Also looking at the goals calculations for the match, we have a goal expectancy of 2.87 goals.
Looking at the numbers, there is a 5.81% chance of the game being 0-0 and there is a 22% chance the home team (Blackburn) will score first.

In the 4 games played so far this season Blackburn have W0D1L2, Arsenal have W1D1L2. Blackburn have scored 3 goals (0.75gpg) and conceded 7 (1.75gpg), they have had no clean sheets and have scored 75% of the time. 50% of their games have been over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have scored 3 (0.75gpg) and conceded 10 (2.5gpg), they have 50% clean sheets and have scored 50% of the time. Only 25% of their games have been over 2.5 goals.

The head to heads between the two teams over the last 10 seasons have been 20% Blackburn 15% Draw and 65% Arsenal
The last 10 seasons at Blackburn have been 30% Blackburn 10% Draw and 60% Arsenal.

How many goals are normally in these matches?

11 out of 20 league matches in the last 10 seasons have been over 2.5 goals. We also have 4 out of the 10 league matches in the last 10 seasons at Blackburn have produced over 2.5 goals.

Both Blackburn and Arsenal have had poor start to the season, and the stats don't suggest an easy win for Arsenal. However, looking at the stats for this season, one has to remember that Arsenal have played Liverpool and Man Utd in 2 of their 4 matches. They got thrashed at Old Trafford were they had a very weak side. They lost 2-0 to Liverpool at the Emirates, however, that game was a stalemate and was heading for a 0-0 until Arsenal went down to 10 men and then had a cruel deflected 1st goal scored against them.

In contrast Blackburn have not played any top teams, they have played Wolves, Aston Villa, Everton and Fulham. Arsenal have sold lots of players, but at least now they have bought a decent centre back and Arteta and Benayoun, who should provide too much quality for Blackburn with their passing ability.

Arsenal were unlucky in mid-week in the champions league and I can't see Blackburn halting their recovery (1 win and 1 draw) in the last week. Also the head to heads suggest Arsenal should win.

I think I will lay the draw, setting my stop loss at the usual 1.9. Also looking at the scoring and conceding timings, both teams don't get off to fast starts, so I may look at laying over 2.5 goals for the 1st 15 minutes.

Happy Trading

UPDATE:- Well this was a prime example of trading discipline. I laid the draw and when Arsenal scored the first I hedged out for a nice profit. I also laid over 2.5 goals, aiming to hedge out after 15 minutes, when Arsenal scored after 10 minutes I laid again for the same stake, with the plan of hedging out at half-time if it was still 1-0. When it became apparent that it was an end to end open match, I started backing various scorelines and managing my position in-play. I lost £17.27 in the over/under 2.5 goals market, but won £23.30 in the correct score market.