Well this afternoon sees the first heavy weight class of the season, Man Utd Vs Chelsea.
My spreadsheet gives me a success rate for Man Utd of 93%!!!!!
This equates to 80% chance of Man Utd winning and 18% chance of a draw and 2% chance for a Chelsea win!!!
We also have a goal expectancy of 3.50
The % chance of 0 goals in this game is 2%
The % chance of Man Utd scoring first is 83%.
The last 6 games for these two teams are as follows:-
Man Utd have won 5 out of the last 6. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 6, with 2 clean sheets. They have never failed to score and have lost 0. Chelsea have won 3 of the last 6. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 6, with 1 clean sheets. They have failed to score on 2 occasions. They have lost 1.
This season both teams have played 4 matches. Man Utd have won 4 scoring 18 goals (4.5gpg) and conceding 3 goals (0.75gpg). They have 50% clean sheets and have scored in every game (100%). Also 100% of their games have been over 2.5 goals.
Chelsea have won 3 and draw 1 of the first 4 games of the season. They have scored 7 goals (1.75gpg) and conceded 3(0.75gpg). They have kept 25% clean sheets and have scored in 75% of their games. Also 75% of their games have been over 2.5 goals.
In terms of 0-0's, there has only been one in the first 8 games these two have played this season.
In terms of H2H's, there has been 0 0-0's in the last 11 seasons at Old Trafford.
Also in the last 11 seasons, Man Utd have won 5, there have been 3 draws and 3 Chelsea wins.
Man Utd have started the season so quick, and normally they are slow starters. Chelsea have not played well so far, but have progressed steadily.
I cannot see Man Utd losing this one. so I will be laying the draw from the start. I might look at laying under 2.5 goals as well, as both teams have an attacking line-up
Happy Trading
Great research, I think that the final result definitely reflected what your research showed (even if the performances of the two teams didn't really reflect the scoreline).
ReplyDeleteHope you had a good win on it after all your hard work, I suppose the bet was in at HT if you laid the draw.
I tend to leave the heavyweight clashes alone as they can be a bit tight at times and most of my trades are based on goals being scored.
I can't believe how well United have started this season, they are usually worth avoiding over the first few games as they usually start quite slowly. No such problem this year.