Friday night games

Hi folks,

Two games on tonight:-

Doncaster Vs Leeds

I have the success rate for this match as being 30%. This equates to a 16% chance of a Doncaster win, 27% chance of the draw and a 57% chance of a Leeds win.
The goal expectancy is 2.74
%0 goals = 6.73%
%Home team scoring first = 32.64%

Right lets look at some stats

In the last 6 games Doncaster have won 2, they have scored 5 goals and conceded 7, keeping 1 clean sheet. 16.7% of their games have been over 2.5 goals. They have lost 2 matches Leeds have won 3 of the last 6, scoring 12 goals and conceding 10, with 1 clean sheet also. They have lost 1 match. They have 83% of their games over 2.5 goals.

Overall for the season so far Doncaster have won 2 matches out of 10 and scored 6 goals, conceded 14, keeping 1 clean sheet. They have lost 6. 70% of their matches have been under 2.5 goals. Leeds have won 4 out of their 9 matches, scoring 17 goals and conceding 15, with 1 clean sheet. They have 77.8% of games over 2.5 goals and have lost 3 matches.

0-0's

Doncaster have had no 0-0's this season and neither have Leeds

H2H's 4/6 of the matches have been 1 goals or less, and have normally been tight games, althought the last meeting, the carling cup this season was 2-1 to Leeds.

The record has been 2 wins to Doncaster, 1 draw and 3 Leeds wins.
Leeds are undefeated against Doncaster in the last 3, including the carling cup match.
At doncaster it is 1 win each and 1draw.

General comments:- Doncaster are undefeated in their last 3 matches, since Dean Saunders took over, they have won 2 and drawn 1. Leeds are undefeated in the last 4, winning 3 and drawing 1. However, Leeds have yet to win away from home this season.

Doncaster have been losing in 4/5 games at home at half time.
Leeds have been winning 2 and losing 2 of their away games at half time.
Doncaster have only scored first in 1 games at home this season.
Leeds have scored 1st in 2/4 away games this season.
Doncaster have conceded 1st in 4/5 home games this season
Leeds have conceded 1st in 2/4 away games this season.

I think this will be Leeds first away win of the season, I think they will have too much firepower for Doncaster. I will lay the draw as both teams odds are fairly even anyway. I think Doncaster will score though as the Leeds defence can be sloppy at times.

Lay the draw and lay under 2.5 goals

Werder Bremen Vs Dortmund.

I have a success rate of 70% for this match. That equates to 57% chance for Werder Bremen and 27% for the draw and 16% for Dortmund.
The goal expectancy is 2.91.
%0 Goals = 6.36%
%Home team scores first = 61%.

Dortmund are the favourites with the odds for this match, but I don't see it that way. Dortmunds away form has been poor this season, and with the Champions league distraction, I cannot be certain that Dortmund will score first. so I am not laying the draw. However, 19 of their last 21 matches have had 2 or more goals in, so I think I will lay under 2.5 goals in this game and hope to hedge out for a profit at some point during the game

Happy Trading

UPDATE:- Well the leeds game went according to plan. When Leeds scored I hedged out for a 17% ROI. I also laid under 2.5 goals and hedged out when it was 2-0 to leeds for a 36.5% ROI, to be fair as they scored the second goal with 35 minutes to go, I should have stayed in. But I am pleased with the results.

As for the Dortmund game, the first goal came before half time and I could not hedge out for a profit, so I stayed in the match. The second goal came with about 15 minutes to go, and I did not risk staying in, especially with Dortmund being down to ten men. However, I managed to hedge out for a 1% ROI.