31st January 2012

8:00pm Everton Vs Man City

Tonight’s football pits 15^th place Everton against the top club, Man City. Can Everton slow down the Juggernaut that is Man City, or will the likes of Silva and Augero keep the blue express train speeding along. Let’s have a look at the stats.

OVERALL

Everton have won 7 of the 22 matches this season. They have drawn 5 and lost 10. They have scored 22 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 26 (1.18gpg). They have only managed 4 clean sheets and scored in 15 matches. Everton have only won 1 game in the last 6 matches (3 draws and 2 loses). Nine of their last 10 matches have been under 2.5 goals, including the last 3 matches.

Man City have won 17 of the 22 matches this season. They have drawn 3 and lost 2 and they are top of the premiership. They have hit a small slump in form, with exiting the two cups. However, they seem to be still going strong in the league. In the league they have scored 60 goals (2.73gpg) and conceded 18 (0.82gpg). They have managed 9 clean sheets and scored in 20 matches.  Man City have won four of the last six, with 1 draw and 1 lose to go with it. Five of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

CURRENT FORM

Everton have won 1 in the last six. They have drawn 3 and lost 2. They have scored 5 goals (0.83gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.17gpg). They have only kept one clean sheet and scored in 5 matches.

Man City have won 4 in the last six. They have drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches.

HOME VS AWAY FORM

Everton have won 2 of their last 6 home games. They have drawn 2 and lost 2. They have scored 6 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 6 (1.0gpg). They have only kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 matches.  Two of their last 6 home games have been over 2.5 goals.

Man City have won 2 of their last 6 away games. They have drawn 2 and lost 2. They have scored 6 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 6 (1.0gpg). They have only kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches. Two of their last 6 away games have been over 2.5 goals.

H2H’s

Everton have a good recent record against Man City, winning 4 of their last 5 encounters. However, Man City won the last encounter, and you have to realise that this Man City team is completely different than previous years with the firepower they have. Everton also have a good recent home record against Man City, Winning 3 of the last 5, with 1 draw and 1 loss. Only 4 of the last 11 matches between these two teams has yielded over 2.5 goals. And only two of the last 5 matches at Goodison have been over 2.5 goals. However, 9 out of the last 11 encounters have produced 2 goals or more and 4 of the 5 games at Goodison have produced 2 goals or more.

GENERAL

I have the success rate for this match as 15%. This equates to a 5% chance of a Everton win, 22% chance of a draw and a 73% chance of a Man City win. The goal expectancy is 2.84. The % chance of the game finishing 0-0 is 6.1%, and the % chance of Everton scoring first is 12.9%.

Everton score first in 4/11 of their home matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 1 of those matches (25%). They have conceded first in 7/11 home matches, and when conceding first they have only won twice (Drew 1, lost 4)

Man City have scored first in 8/11 of their away matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 5 of those matches (62.5%) (Drew 2, lost 1). They have conceded first in 2/11 away matches, and when conceding  first they have won 1 (50%) and lost 1.

Everton average 1.09 pts at home, Man City average 1.91pts away. Everton have won 27.3% of their home games and Man City have won 54.6% of their away games. Everton have score 45.8% of goals in their games. Man City score 54.6% of goals in their games. Everton score 40% of first half goals in their games. Man City score 68.4% or first half goals in their games. Everton score 50% of second half goals in their games. Man City score 66.7% of second half goals in their games. Everton have the edge with total shots % per game at 65.1% vs Man City’s 59.6%. However, Everton have a 63.8% of shots on target vs Man City’s 68.7%. Man City also have a better GFSE than Everton (14.4% vs 6.55%). Man City also have a lower (better) GCSE than Everton (9.84% vs 14.4%)

VERDICT

Man City have the edge in almost all the stats, with the main exception being the H2H’s. Kompany should return tonight which should sure up the defence as Savic looked a liability in the last few games and as long as Silva starts tonight, I can only see a Man City win in this match, even with their poor record recently at Everton. I think I will lay the draw in this match. I think Everton might score tonight as away from home Man City do tend to give 1 goal away, so I think will also lay under 2.5 goals.