8:00pm Wigan Vs Man City
Tonight’s Monday night football pits the bottom club, Wigan, against the top club, Man City. Do Wigan have a chance or will Man City collect all the points and move three points clear of Man Utd. Let’s have a look at the stats.
OVERALL
Wigan have won 3 of the 20 matches this season. They have drawn 6 and lost 11 and they are fixed firmly at the bottom of the premiership. They have scored 18 goals (0.9gpg) and conceded 41 (2.1gpg). They have only managed 3 clean sheets and scored in 12 matches. Wigan have not won a game in the last 5 matches (3 draws and 2 loses). Eight of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals, including the last 3 matches.
Man City have won 15 of the 20 matches this season. They have drawn 3 and lost 2 and they are top of the premiership. However, of late they have had a blip, losing to Man United in the FA Cup, Sunderland in the league and Liverpool in the Carling Cup. In the league they have scored 56 goals (2.8gpg) and conceded 16 (0.8gpg). They have managed 8 clean sheets and scored in 18 matches. Man City have only won one of the last three, with 1 draw and 1 lose to go with it. Six of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals.
CURRENT FORM
Wigan have won 1 in the last six. They have drawn 3 and lost 2. They have scored 6 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 13 goals (2.17gpg). They have only kept one clean sheet and scored in 4 matches.
Man City have won 3 in the last six. They have drawn 1 and lost 2. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches.
HOME VS AWAY FORM
Wigan have won 0 of their last 6 home games. They have drawn 3 and lost 3. They have scored 5 goals (0.83gpg) and conceded 14 (2.33gpg). They have only kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 3 matches. Three of their last 6 home games have been over 2.5 goals.
Man City have won 2 of their last 6 away games. They have drawn 2 and lost 2. They have scored 11 goals (1.83gpg) and conceded 7 (1.17gpg). They have only kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 4 matches. Three of their last 6 away games have been over 2.5 goals.
H2H’s
Man City have won the last 4 matches against Wigan. However, they have only won 1 of the last 5 at Wigan (2 draws and two defeats), so there may be hope for Wigan. Only 4 of the last 10 matches between these two teams has yielded over 2.5 goals.
GENERAL
I have the success rate for this match as 10%. This equates to a 2% chance of a Wigan win, 18% chance of a draw and a 80% chance of a Man City win. The goal expectancy is 3.19. The % chance of the game finishing 0-0 is 3.4%, and the % chance of Wigan scoring first is 16.5%.
Wigan score first in 2/10 of their home matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 1 of those matches (50%). They have conceded first in 7/10 home matches, and when conceding first they have never won (Drew 2, lost 5)
Man City have scored first in 7/10 of their away matches, and when scoring first they went on to win 4 of those matches (57.1%) (Drew 2, lost 1). They have conceded first in 2/10 away matches, and when conceding first they have won 1 (50%) and lost 1.
Wigan average 0.7pts at home, Man City average 1.8pts away. Wigan have won 10% of their home games and Man City have won 50% of their away games.
VERDICT
Man City have hit a small blip, certainly with the defeats in the cup. However, they were playing Man United and Liverpool; both have much more class than Wigan. Man City do have some players missing, Kompany, and the Toure’s being the main concern. However, Silva starts tonight, and he is the key to unlocking defences when teams park the bus. I can only see a Man City win in this match, even with their record at Wigan and the missing players. I think I will lay the draw in this match. I will also lay under 2.5 goals, as without Kompany, I can see Wigan scoring a goal. I will only put a part stake on laying under 2.5 goals from the beginning of the match as Man City score 64% of their goals in the second half away from home.
Happy Trading
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