Twente Vs Heracles (7pm)

The Friday night Dutch encounter is between 3^rd placed Twente and 10^th placed Heracles. Twente are currently 3pts off the top spot and tonight’s game appears to be a home banker. Let’s have a look at the stats.

Firstly we will have a look at the success rate for both teams and the weight of goals (WOG), home vs away.

As we can see Twente are superior in every department. How do these figures compare to the average figures for the league. The average Home Success rate is 63%, and the average away success rate is 37.62%. Twente are well above the home average and Heracles are well below the away average. Now we will examine the goals scored and conceded for each team over the whole season and the last 18, 12 and 6 matches.

As the results clearly show, Twente are superior in attack and defence, indeed in the last 6 matches their scoring ratio has improved along with their defence Heracles scoring ratio has also improved recently, along with their defence. However, Twente still have a significant advantage.

Next we will look at the number of clean sheets and the number of matches the teams have failed to score in.

As we can see Twente come out on top again, with more clean sheets and fewer failed to score games.

Let’s have a look at the H2H’s between the two teams.

The last 11 matches have yielded 7 Twente wins and only 1 win for Heracles. Also Twente have won 4 of the last 5 home matches. Heracles have never won at Twente. Six of the 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals and all of the matches at Twente (5) have yielded 2 goals or more.

The stats suggest only one winner here, and that is Twente. Twente have also been scoring quite a lot of goals lately, with their last three games yielding 16 goals. Coupled with the fact that Twente have not lost a home game yet and Heracles have only won one away game and concede 2gpg away from home I will be backing over 2.5 goals and lay the draw.

Happy Trading

Well that did not go as expected. However, I managed to make a small profit. At half time with Heracles 1-0 up I hedged out of LTD and backed Twente. Then when it went to 1-1 I thought 'great' Twente will go on and win the game. However, Heracles were not playing for a 1-1 and were still creating chances, so with about 15-18 minutes to go I hedged out and layed the draw again. Heracles scored and I hedged out for a small profit of £4.14