Battle at the top

West Ham Vs Middlesbrough
The televised Championship match this evening is an important battle in the fight for promotion. West Ham, who are 3rd, face Middlesbrough, who are 6th. Both teams need all three points. West Ham have lost 2nd place to Reading, who are flying at the moment, so they need the win to move back into the automatic promotion places. Middlesbrough on the other hand, need the points, in order to keep in the hunt for the play-offs. So who will come out on top this evening, let’s have a look at the stats.

League Form

•    West Ham have won 4 of the last 10 matches (but are undefeated in the last 8). They have only lost 1 of the last 10 matches, but they have drawn the last 3 matches.
•    Middlesbrough have won 4 of the last 10 matches (but have lost the last 2).
•    West Ham’s current form (last 6) has seen them Win 2, draw 4 and loss 0. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 4 goals (0.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
•    Middlesbrough current form (last 6) has seen them Win 3, draw 0 and loss 3. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and concede 9 (1.5gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 3 matches.
•    West Ham’s current home form (last 6) has seen them Win 2, draw 4 and lose 0. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.83gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. They have drawn the last 4 matches at home.
•    Middlesbrough’s current away form (last 6) has seen them Win 2, draw 1 and lose 3. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 13 goals (2.17gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.

General Stats

•    Both teams score in 56% of West Ham’s home games. Both teams score in 47% of Middlesbrough’s away games.
•    West Ham score 1st in 61% of their home games. Middlesbrough score 1st in 47% of their away matches.
•    West Ham’s home games only contain over 1.5 goals in the 1st half 17% of the time. Middlesbrough’s away game contain over 1.5 goals in the 1st half 35% of the time.
•    89% of West Ham’s home games contain a goal. 94% of Middlesbrough’s away games contain a goal.
•    61% of West Ham’s home games contain a goal in the 1st half. 59% of Middlesbrough’s away games contain a goal in the 1st half.
•    78% of West Ham’s home games contain a goal in the 2nd half. 88% of Middlesbrough’s away games contain a goal in the 2nd half.
•    West Ham have kept 28% clean sheets in home matches. Middlesbrough have kept 29% clean sheets in away matches.
•    West Ham have scored in 78% of their home matches. Middlesbrough have scored in 71% of their away matches.
•    West Ham have scored in the 1st half of their home matches 61% of the time. Middlesbrough have scored in the 1st half of their away matches 47% of the time.
•    West Ham have scored in the 2nd half of their home matches 67% of the time. Middlesbrough have scored in the 2nd half of their away matches 65% of the time.
•    33% of West Ham’s home matches contain a goal in the 1st 15 mins. 47% of Middlesbrough’s away matches contain a goal in the 1st 15 mins.
•    78% of West Ham’s home matches contain a goal before 68mins. 88% of Middlesbrough’s away matches contain a goal before 68mins.
•    West Ham, at home, score the 1st goal before 68mins 61% of the time. Middlesbrough, away from home, score the 1st goal before 68mins 41% of the time.
•    West Ham lead, before 68mins, at home 72% of the time. Middlesbrough lead, before 68mins, away from home 53% of the time.
•    West Ham’s home matches contain 1 goal or more 89% of the time. Middlesbrough’s away matches contain 1 goal or more, 94% of the time.
•    West Ham’s home matches contain over 1.5 goals 61% of the time. Middlesbrough’s away matches contain over 1.5 goals, 76% of the time.
•    West Ham’s home matches contain over 2.5 goals 44% of the time. Middlesbrough’s away matches contain over 2.5 goals 58% of the time.

H2H’s:- In the last 11 league matches, between the two sides, West Ham have won 7 and Middlesbrough have only won 2. At Upton Park, West Ham have won 5 out of 5. The last 11 matches between the sides have yields 6 over 2.5 goals and 5 under 2.5 goals. At Upton park 3 of the 5 have been over 2.5 goals.

Verdict:- Both teams have hit a bit of a bad patch, West Ham have drawn the last 3 and Middlesbrough have lost the last 2 matches, both against good opposition in Birmingham and Leeds. They conceded 5 goals and scored 0. West Ham had a couple of draws against lowly Doncaster and Watford, but last time out, they gain a good point against a resurgent Leeds, away from home. Looking at the stats, West Ham have the advantage, they score more goals and concede less than Middlesbrough. Although West Ham’s home form isn’t great, Middlesbrough look as though they are slipping down the table at exactly the wrong time. Middlesbrough

Strategies I will consider:-
•    Backing West Ham, if Middlesbrough score 1st, then hedge out and lay Middlesbrough. Total stop loss will  be 5% of bank.
•    Lay the draw, again if Middlesbrough score 1st, then hedge out and lay Middlesbrough. Total stop loss will be 5% of bank
•    I think the game will be under 2.5 goals, but I can’t lay from the beginning as both teams matches have a goal in the 1st 15 mins on average 40% of the time (33% vs 47%). The average for the league is 25%. I think I will wait and see how the match pans out.
•    I  may lay under 1.5 goals if I can get a better price, if it is 0-0 after 15-20mins.