Man City Vs Chelsea
Well tonight we have a heavyweight clash between Man City, who are 2nd, against Chelsea, who are 5th. Man City have been overtaken at the top of the table by Man Utd, and they trail by 4pts, so the pressure is on for City. Chelsea, since sacking their manager AVB, have won four games on the bounce, and Torres has even started scoring, what on earth is going on. Let’s have a look at the stats.
League Form
• Man City have won 7 of the last 10 matches and have only lost 1 of the last 5 matches.
• Chelsea have won 4 of the last 10 matches and have only won 2 of the last 5 matches.
• Looking at the current form (last 6) for Man City, they have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 2. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 2 (0.33gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches.
• Looking at the current form (last 6) for Chelsea, they have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.17gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 matches.
• Looking at Man City’s current home form (last 6), they have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 0. They have scored 17 goals (2.83gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.33gpg). They have kept 5 clean sheets and scored in every match.
• Looking at Chelsea’s current away form (last 6), they have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 2. They have scored 4 goals (0.67gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1.0gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 3 matches.
H2H’s
• Man City have won 3 of the last 11 meetings with Chelsea. Chelsea have won 8. There has been no draws.
• At home Man City have won 2 of the last 5 and Chelsea have won 3
• There has been no 0-0’s and no draw’s
• However, Man City have won the last 2 at home against Chelsea.
• 2 of the 5 matches at Man City have been over 2.5 goals.
• 6 of the 11 matches overall have been over 2.5 goals.
General Stats
• Both teams score in Man City’s home matches 36% of the time. Both teams score in Chelsea’s away matches 50% of the time.
• Both teams score in the 1st half of Man City’s home matches 0% of the time. Both teams score in the 1st half of Chelsea’s away matches 7% of the time.
• Man City score 1st at home 100% of the time. Chelsea score 1st away from home 43% of the time.
• Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half of Man City’s home matches occur 29% of the time. Over 1.5 goals in the 1st half of Chelsea’s away matches occur 21% of the time.
• Over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half of Man City’s home matches occur 65% of the time.
• The 2nd half of Man City’s home matches is the highest scoring one 65% of the time, compared to 43% for Chelsea’s away matches.
• There has been at least 1 goal in every home match (100%) for Man City. There has been a goal in 86% of Chelsea’s away matches this season.
• A goal is scored at Man City in the 1st half 64% of the time compared to 57% away for Chelsea
• A goal is scored at Man City in the 2nd half 100% of the time compared to 71% away for Chelsea.
• Man City keep 65% clean sheets at home compared to 29% away for Chelsea.
• Man City have scored in every home game this season (100%). Chelsea have scored in 64% of their away matches.
• Man City have scored in the 1st half at home 64% of the time compared to 79% for Chelsea.
• Man City have scored in the 2nd half at home 100% of the time compared to 57% for Chelsea.
• 25% of the time both teams home vs. away matches contain a goal in the 1st 15mins, about average for the league.
• Man City’s home matches have a goal before the 68min mark, 93% of the time compared to 86% for Chelsea.
• Man City score 1st at home before 68mins 93% of the time compared to 43% for Chelsea away.
• Man City are leading before 68mins at home 93% of the time compared to 43% for Chelsea away.
• 43% of Man City’s home matches have a goal in the last 15 mins.
• Man City at home have 1 goal or more 100% of the time compared to 86% for Chelsea away.
• Man City at home have over 1.5 goals 93% of the time compared to 64% for Chelsea away.
• Man City at home have over 2.5 goals 76% of the time compared to 36% for Chelsea away.
• Man City have scored 1st in every league game this season, and have won them all.
• Chelsea have scored 1st in 43% of their away league matches this season, and have won 83%.
• However, when Chelsea have conceded 1st, they have drawn 2 and lost 4, they have never won.
Verdict:- Man City have only played 1 of the top 4 sides at home so far this season, and that was Arsenal, and they only won 1-0. I do seem to recall that they should have scored more that day. I think this will be a tough test for Chelsea and all the stats point to a City win, with the only exception being the H2H figures. However, most of the H2H figures were before City constructed this star studded side. Chelsea have won their last 4 matches in all competitions. However, two of them were at home to Birmingham and Leicester in the cup, at home to Stoke in the league and at home to Napoli in the Champions league. Chelsea’s away form is not as convincing and Man City’s home form is sensational. John Terry is injured for Chelsea, but Kompany could be back for Man City. If Kompany plays it will be very difficult for Chelsea to break through. Looking at the stats as well, City tend to score more goals in the 2nd half and have yet to score a 1st half goal in the league. City to win 2-0 if Kompany plays and if he doesn’t then 2-1 to City.
Strategies I will consider:-
• Lay the draw, stop loss 1.9 for 5% of bank
• Lay over 2.5 goals for 2.5% of bank for the 1st 15 mins of the match.
• Depending on the score in the 2nd half, look to lay the current score with 25 mins to go
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