The Tuesday night premiership action pits Liverpool, who are 7th, against Everton, who are 8th. Liverpool have lost the last 3 matches and Everton have beaten Spurs, Chelsea and Man City in the last 6 matches. So can Liverpool end their current poor run, or will Everton take the spoils and win the bragging rights for the city. Let’s have a look at the stats.
Looking at the success rate we can see that the two teams are neck and neck for the season. However, when it comes to home vs. away success rate, Liverpool do have a 15% advantage. The home vs. away winning% are also very close, with nothing to call between the two teams. However, when we look at the WOG%, we can see that home vs. away and home vs. away 1st half, there is a significant advantage to Liverpool.
If we look at how the two teams fair with scoring, we can see that there is nothing to separate them when looking at gpg. Looking at the gcpg we can see that, once again, the two teams are close, apart from the last 6 matches, were Everton’s defence has been particularly tight. Finally, if we look at the total goals in the two teams matches, we can see that the average is about 2gpg. So far, I think the stats suggest it will be a tight game.
Looking at the clean sheets for both teams, we can see that Liverpool did have an advantage, but that advantage appears to have been wipe out in recent matches. Indeed over the last 6 matches, Everton have kept 50% clean sheets. The clean sheet decrease for Liverpool, corresponds to the injury to Agger, and the re-introduction of Carragher. Carragher was a very good defender, but I think age is catching up with him and he has lost half a yard of pace. It would also appear that Liverpool’s finishing in front of goal is poorer than Everton’s as they have failed to score more times than their opponents. Indeed, the last 6 matches, Everton have scored in every game.
Looking at the overall form for the season, we can see that Liverpool have a very slender advantage. However, if we look at current form, Everton are in the ascendency. Indeed, Liverpool have only one win in the last 6 matches.
However, perhaps all is not lost for Liverpool, as if we look at Overall and current home vs. away form we can see that Liverpool have a slight advantage. Everton have only won 1 of the last 6 away. However, they have drawn 4.
H2H’S –Liverpool have won 6 of the last 11 matches and Everton have won 2, with 3 draws making up the games. Liverpool have won 2, there has been 3 draws and no Everton wins. 3 of the 11 matches have been over 2.5 goals and 1 of the 5 at Anfield have been over 2.5 goals.
Verdict – The Merseyside derby is always a tough one to call, form goes out of the win, which might just be a blessing in disguise for Liverpool!!! I can’t believe that Liverpool are odds on to win this match at 1.82. Looking at the stats and Liverpool’s current form, there is no way I will be laying the draw. If this game was not a derby, I would most probably lay Liverpool, as they have drawn 62% of their home matches. I think I will lay over 2.5 goals for the 1st 15mins of the match and try and grab a few ticks.
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