Champions League D-DAY

Well tonight’s big match in the champions league features Chelsea and Napoli. Napoli hold a 3-1 lead from the first leg. Since the first leg AVB has been sacked, as a result of a poor run of results, or it might have had something to do with player power, a statement that John Terry vehemently denied this morning!!!
Anyway, I guess the real question is, can Chelsea succeed, were Arsenal failed. To be fair, at least Chelsea do have an away goal, so they only need to win 2-0. However, that is easier said than done against Napoli’s three pronged attached. Let’s have a look at the stats.

League Form

•    Chelsea have only won 4 of the last 10 matches, Napoli have only won 5, but it is the last 5, so they are on a good run.
•    The last 6 matches have seen Chelsea win only 2 and draw 2, they have scored 8 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 7 (1.08gpg). They have also kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4.
•    The last 6 matches have seen Napoli win 5 and draw 1, they have scored 14 goals (2.33gpg) and conceded 4 (0.67gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5.
•    Looking at Chelsea’s current home form (last 6), they have won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 7 (1.17gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in all of the matches.
•    Looking at Napoli’s current away form (last 6), they have won 3 and drawn 2. They have scored 11 goals (1.88gpg) and conceded 6 (1.0gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5 of their matches.

Champions League form

•    Chelsea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 2 so far this season. They have scored 14 goals (2.0gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.0gpg). There away form has been very poor, winning 0, drawing 2 and losing 2. However, their home form has been excellent, winning all three of the group matches.
•    Napoli have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 1 so far this season. They have scored 13 goals (1.85gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.0gpg).  Their home form is very good, winning 3 and drawing 1 against Bayern Munich. However, there is hope for Chelsea as their away form is not great, winning 1, Drawing 1 and losing 1.

General stats

•    Since the sacking of AVB, Chelsea have a 100% record, winning their FA cup replay and the league game at the weekend against stoke.
•    In the league when looking at home vs. away form Chelsea score 1st 78.5% of the time compared to Napoli’s 62%
•    Over 1.5 goals occurs in both teams matches 70% of the time in the second half.
•    A goal is scored in 80% of both teams matches.
•    A goal is scored home vs. away in 88% of both team matches.
•    A goal scored in the 1st half home vs. away occurs 66% of the time.
•    A goal scored in the 2nd half home vs. away occurs 85% of the time.
•    Chelsea have scored in 100% of their home matches, whereas Napoli have scored in 77% of their away matches in the league.
•    1st goal occurring before 68m mins home vs. away happens 81% of the time.
•    Chelsea score the 1st goal at home before 68mins 71% of the time compared to Napoli 46% of time away from home.
•    Chelsea are leading in home matches 71% of the time before 68mins, compared to Napoli’s 31% away from home.
•    Chelsea’s matches at home contain a goal after 75mins 43% of the time.
•    Napoli’s matches away from home contain a goal after 75mins 46% of the time.
•    Home vs. Away 1 or more goals occurs 87% of the time.
•    Home vs. Away over 1.5 goals occurs 81% of the time.
•    Home vs. Away over 2.5 goals occurs 66% of the time.

Verdict:- As they say in the modern game, player power, and I am afraid I think this is the case at Chelsea. Now that AVB has gone, I would not be surprised if Chelsea pull a performance out of the bag and win this, whether or not they go through is touch and go. To be fair Chelsea, played well in the first leg, but Napoli always looked dangerous on the counter attack, although I must admit Napoli’s defence did not look good, and it did not look good at the weekend when they won 6-3. The problem for Chelsea is Napoli’s forward line is just too good and I can see them scoring. However, looking at the stats, I think Chelsea will take the lead, and that is all we need for laying the draw. I think I will also lay under 2.5 goals, as Chelsea will have to chase the game at some point.

Strategies I will be using.
•    LTD for 5% of bank, stop loss 1.7. Hedge out if Chelsea takes the lead. If Chelsea concedes 1st and early, lay Napoli. Total loss will always be 5% of bank.
•    Lay under 2.5 goals for 2.5% of bank.
•    If 0-0 at half-time, I may consider laying under 1.5 goals
•    If 0-0 with 25-30mins to go I will lay the current score.
•    If 1-0 to Napoli with 25-30 mins to go I will lay the current score.