There are three matches this evening in the Europa league that I would like to trade. However, I always find Europa League matches hard to judge as some teams do not seem committed to the tournament, therefore it is hard to judge who really wants to win. Trading in these matches will depend on the team news 30 minutes before kick-off.
Sporting Lisbon Vs Man City.
Sporting Lisbon lie 4th in the Portuguese league 12 pts behind FC Porto. Sporting Lisbon have a very good home record, winning 7, drawing 2 and losing 1 this season in the league, they have scored 2.0gpg and conceded 0.6gpg. Their last 6 home matches in the league, the goals appear to have dried up somewhat, with them scoring only 4 goals and conceding 3. Their last 6 games overall in the league they have won 3, drew 2 and lost 1. The last round of the Europa league they narrowly beat Legia Warsaw. They drew 2-2 away from home and then won 1-0 at home.
Man City have a good away record, winning 7, drawing 3 and losing 3 this season in the league. They have scored 2.08gpg and conceded 1gpg. Their last 6 away matches in the league, the goals have also dried up, they have scored only 3 and conceded 4. Their last 6 games overall in the league they have won 5, drew 0 and lost 1. The last round of the Europa league they destroyed the best team in the Portuguese league, and the current Europa league holders, FC Porto. They beat FC Porto away 2-1 and then at home 4-0.
Verdict:- If Man City take this game seriously and field a strong team, I can’t see Sporting Lisbon coping. For me Sporting Lisbon need to win this match to stand any chance of going through over the two leagues, they most probably need to win 2-0 at least. I will lay the draw if Man City field a strong team for 5% of bank, if Sporting Lisbon take the league, I will look to lay them, depending on how the game is progressing.
FC Twente Vs Schalke
FC Twente are on fire at the moment, and they destroyed PSV 6-2 away from home at the weekend. Schalke on the other hand, are not playing well at the moment. Their last two away games they have lost and have not played well. Ok, one of the games was against Bayern Munich in which they lost 2-0, but the other match was against bottomed placed Freiburg, which they lost 2-1.
FC Twente have lost 1 game all season at home in the league, winning 8 and drawing 3. They have scored 33 goals at home and conceded 11. Their last 6 games overall, in the league has seen them win 5 and lose 1. In the last round of the Europa league they did however only produced two 1-0 wins to Steaua.
Schalke have only won 2 of the last 6 away games in the league, losing the other 4. They have scored 7 and conceded 11. They have only kept 1 clean sheet away from home in the last 12 matches in the league. They have lost the last 3 away games. They have also only won 2 of the last 6 matches overall in the league. In the last round of the Europa league they beat Vikoria Plzen, but needed extra time to get the job done.
Verdict:- Again, if FC Twente field a strong team, then I think they will be too strong for Schalke. Again I will lay the draw for 5% of bank and if Schalke score first I will look to lay Schalke, depending on how the game is progressing.
Man Utd Vs Ath Bilbao
Alex Ferguson has said he will field a strong team tonight, for this Europa league fixture, I will wait and see. Man United’s record at home this season in the league is very good, with 10 wins, 1 draw and 2 loses. They have scored 37 goals and conceded 15 at home.
Ath Bilbao are a decent side, however their away form in the league is not the best. They have only won 3 of their 12 away league matches this season. They have also kept only 1 clean sheet away from home in the league, but they have scored in 11 of the 12 matches. However, they have only won 1 of the last 6 away matches in the league, conceding almost two goals per game.
Verdict:- As before, if Man Utd field a strong squad, I do think they should win this game comfortably. However, their performances in Europe this season have been poor. Having said that Ath Bilbao’s away form this season, is not exactly frightening. Again I think I will lay the draw, and maybe lay under 2.5 goals depending on the line-ups.
Made 13% ROI on laying over 2.5 goals in the Sporting Lisbon Vs Man City for the 1st 15 mins of the game. I have also hedged out of laying the draw in the FC Twente Vs Schalke for a nice profit now they are 1-0 up and Schalke are down to 10 men. I have hedged out of laying the draw in the Sporting Lisbon Vs Man City for no lose or profit as Sporting are 1-0 up. Don't think I will lay Sporting as Kompany went off injured and Sporting are looking dangerous and Man City defence is looking a bit shaky
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