Friday Night Football

Hi Folks,

Here are my thoughts on the 1st of three matches I am hoping to trade tonight.

Stuggart Vs Kaiserslautern

The Friday night German match is between Stuttgart, who are 8^th vs Kaiserslautern, who are bottom of the league. It would appear that this should be an easy win for Stuttgart; let’s have a look at the stats.

Looking at the success rates first, we can see that Stuttgart have a clear advantage. Also the winning % and WOG% are all in Stuttgart’s favour.

Looking at the goals per game scored (GPG), we can see that Stuttgart are comfortably ahead overall for the season and over the last 24, 18, 12 and 6 matches. When it comes to goals conceded per game (GCPG), the teams are a lot more even. Finally, Stuttgart’s matches overall for the season and at home produced more goals than Kaiserslautern’s matches overall for the season and away.

Stuttgart keep more clean sheets (CS) than Kaiserslautern, with the exception of the last 12 matches figures, which are fairly even. Although to be fair, both teams do not keep a high percentage of clean sheets. The biggest difference between the two teams is in the failed to score stats. Kaiserslautern have failed to score across the board, in at least 50% of their matches. Stuttgart fails to score in approximately 20% of their matches.

If we look at overall form for the season, we can see that losses are fairly even. However, Stuttgart have won far more and drawn far less than Kaiserslautern Looking at the last 6 matches, Stuttgart have won 3, Kaiserslautern have won none. Stuttgart have only lost 2 and Kaiserslautern have lost 4.

Looking at home form vs. away form we can see once again that Stuttgart are miles ahead.

As we can see in the scoring and conceding 1^st data; Stuttgart score 1^st in 75% of their home matches and Kaiserslautern only score 1^st in 25% of their away matches. 60% of Stuttgart’s home goals, come in the 1^st half and 50% of Kaiserslautern’s away goals come in the 1^st half. 46% of Stuttgart’s home conceded goals, come in the 1^st half and 55.6% of Kaiserslautern away conceded goals, come in the 1^st half. So again it appears to be advantage to Stuttgart.

Looking at the H2H’s, Stuttgart have won 5 of the last 11 league matches against Kaiserslautern. There have been 2 Kaiserslautern wins and 4 draws, all of which were score draws. At home Stuttgart have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 to Kaiserslautern. Four of the eleven matches have been over 2.5 goals. Only 1 of the 5 matches at Stuttgart have produced over 2.5 goals. Stuttgart won the away fixture against Kaiserslautern earlier in the season.

Over/under 2.5 goals:- 9 of the last 10 matches Stuttgart have played have been over 2.5 goals and all of their last 6 home matches have been over 2.5 goals. However, only 3 of the last 10 matches Kaiserslautern have played have been over 2.5 goals and only two of their last 6 away matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Verdict:-Looking at the stats, it would suggest that this should be a win for Stuttgart, or that they will be ahead in the match at some point. Therefore, I will lay the draw for 5% of bank. If Kaiserslautern score 1^st, I will look to lay them, depending on when they score and how the two teams are playing. I think I will stay away from over/under 2.5 goals market, as that is a hard one to call. I may lay under 1.5 goals, but not from the start, I would want a better price, as 11/12 home matches for Stuttgart have been over 1.5 goals and 9/12 away matches for Kaiserslautern have been over 2.5 goals.