FA Cup

Everton Vs Sunderland

Well the FA Cup is back this weekend and the early Saturday kick-off pits Everton, who are 8th against Sunderland who are 9th. Everton have been on a great run of late, especially at home. However, they tamely lost the Merseyside derby last time out at Anfield. Sunderland, under Martin O’Neill have been doing very well indeed. So who will come out on top, let’s have a look at the stats

League Form

•    Everton have won only 3 of their last 10 matches, Sunderland have won 6.
•    The last 6 matches have seen Everton Win 3, draw 2 and lose 1. They have scored 6 goals (1gpg) and conceded 5 (0.83gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
•    The last 6 matches for Sunderland have produced 3 Wins, 1 Draw and 2 loses. They have scored 7 goal (1.17gpg) and conceded 7 (1.17gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the last 6 matches.
•    Looking at Everton’s current home form (last 6), they have Won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 3 (0.5gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in all 6 of their matches.
•    Looking at Sunderland’s current away form (last 6), they have Won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 9 goals (1.5gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
•    You could argue that Everton have had tougher home matches in the last 6, as they have played Spurs, Chelsea, Man City, Blackburn, Bolton and Swansea compared to Sunderland’s 6 away opponents of Newcastle, West Brom, Stoke, Chelsea, Wigan and QPR. Also Everton have beaten Spurs, Chelsea and Man City as well.

FA Cup Form

•    Everton have played 3 matches, winning them all without a reply, they have scored 6 goals (2.0gpg) and conceded only 1 (0.33gpg) against Fulham. All their ties have been at home
•    Sunderland have played 4 matches (1 replay). They have scored 7 goals (1.75gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.5 gpg). They have played two matches away and two matches at home.
•    Sunderland have had the tougher matches, playing Peterborough, Middlesbrough and Arsenal. Everton have played Tamworth, Fulham and Blackpool
•    If we look at the all time FA Cup table, Everton are second only to Man Utd, Sunderland are 31st

General Stats

•    Both teams score in Everton’s home games 43% of the time. Both teams score in Sunderland’s away matches 50% of the time.
•    Everton only score 1st in their home matches 50% of the time. Sunderland only score 1st in their away matches 43% of the time.
•    Everton’s home matches have over 1.5 goals in the 1st half 14% of the time, as do Sunderland’s away matches.
•    A goal is scored in 71% of Everton’s home matches. A goal is scored in 64% of Sunderland’s away matches.
•    Everton have scored in 71% of their home matches. Sunderland have scored in 64% of their away matches.
•    There is a goal in Everton’s matches in the 1st 15 mins at home 14% of the time.
•    There is a goal in Sunderland’s matches in the 1st 15 mins away 29% of the time.
•    Everton are leading at home before 68mins 50% of the time.
•    Sunderland are leading away before 68mins 36% of the time.
•    1 goal of more is scored in Everton’s home matches 100% of the time.
•    1 goal of more is scored in Sunderland’s away matches 93% of the time.
•    Over 1.5 goals is scored in Everton’s home matches 57% of the time.
•    Over 1.5 goals is scored in Sunderland’s away matches 64% of the time

H2H’s – In the last 11 matches, Everton have won 7. Sunderland have won 0 and there has been 4 draws.  In the last 5 home matches Everton have won 4 and drawn 1, they have won the last 4.

Verdict:- Everton start as favourites. I think this match will be a tight low scoring match as both teams don’t score many goals, but don’t concede many either. Everton have a good home record of late and they have beaten spurs, Chelsea and Man City in the last 3 home games. They did not play well against Liverpool last week at Anfield, although Moyes did rest several players. Moyes is desperate to win a trophy, he has been in charge 10 years now. I think looking at the stats, they have a slight edge but not much. Martin O’Neill has Sunderland well organised and hard to beat, and it will be a tough game. I cannot lay the draw as the stats are not conclusive with respect to Everton scoring 1st or leading after 68mins.

Strategies I will be looking at:-
•    Lay over 2.5 goals for the 1st 15mins.
•    Might look to lay under 0.5 goals, if there is no goals in the 1st half and the game is tight.