Bundesliga Action

Hoffenheim Vs Stuttgart

Tonight’s Bundesliga action pits 11^th placed Hoffenheim against 8^th placed Stuttgart. Let’s have a look at the stats.

League Form

•  Hoffenheim have only won 2 of their last 10 matches, Stuttgart have only won 3, but are undefeated in the last 3.
• The last 6 matches have seen Hoffenheim Win 1, draw 4 and lose 1, they have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 13 goals (2.17gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches.
•  The last 6 matches have seen Stuttgart Win 3, draw 2 and lose 1, they have scored 17 goals (2.83gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.17gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 of their 6 matches.
• Looking at Hoffenheim’s current home form (last 6), they have Won 0, drawn 6 and lost 0. They have scored 6 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 6 (1gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. 
•  Looking at Stuttgart’s current home form (last 6), they have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 4. They have scored 9 goal (1.5gpg) and concede 12 goals (2gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.

General Stats 

•  Both teams score in Hoffenheim’s home games 67% of the time. Both teams score in Stuttgart’s away games 58% of the time.
• Hoffenheim score 1^st in 75% of their home matches. Stuttgart score 1^st in only 33% of their away matches. 
•  83.3% of Stuttgart’s away games have over 1.5 goals in the 2^nd half .
•   A goal is scored in 83% of Hoffenheim’s home matches and 75% of Stuttgart’s away matches.
• Hoffenheim have scored in 83% of their home matches. Stuttgart have scored in 75% of their away matches
• Hoffenheim score in the 1^st half at home 75% of the time. Stuttgart score in the 1^st half away 50% of the time.
• Hoffenheim score in the 2^nd half at home 50% of the time. Stuttgart score in the 2^nd half away 75% of the time. 
•  Hoffenheim’s home matches have a goal in the 1^st 15mins 16% of the time. Stuttgart’s away matches have a goal in the 1^st 15 mins 25% of the time.
• The 1^st goal in Hoffenheim’s matches at home comes before 68mins 83% of the time.
• The 1^st goal in Stuttgart’s matches away come before 68mins 83% of the time.
•   At home Hoffenheim are leading before 68mins 83% of the time
•  Away from home Stuttgart are leading before 68mins 33% of the time.
• Hoffenheim’s home matches have a goal scored in the last 15mins 42% of the time.
•  Stuttgart’s away matches have a goal scored in the last 15mins 50% of the time
• 92% of both teams games home vs. away contain 1 goal or more.
• 75% of both teams games home vs. away contain over 1.5 goals.

H2H’S:- Hoffenheim have won 0 of the last 7 matches between the two teams. Stuttgart have won 3. Obviously, Hoffenheim have won 0 of the last 3 home matches and Stuttgart have won 1 of the last 3 away matches. In the last 7 matches between the two sides there has only been 1 0-0.

Verdict:- Looking at the stats, this is a tough one to call. I think Stuttgart have the edge overall, although they produced a poor performance at home last week to Kaiserslautern. However, looking at the stats, they suggest that Hoffenheim will score 1^st, possibly in the 1^st half. The stats also suggest that both teams will score, with Stuttgart scoring in the 2^nd half.

Strategies I will be looking at:-

·         Odds are close, so I will LTD for 5% of bank, stop loss 1.7

·         Might look at laying over 2.5 goals for the 1^st 15 mins as both teams don’t score early. I would use 2.5% of bank for this.

·         Then I might lay under 1.5 goals, if 0-0 after 25mins, I would want about 1.6.

·         Also possibly look at laying the current score with 20mins to go.