Friday Night Football Part 2

Hi Folks,

Here are my thoughts for my second game tonight.

Napoli Vs Cagliari

There are two Friday night Italian matches this week. Napoli, who are 5pts adrift of 3^rd placed Lazio, face Cagliari. Napoli are still hoping to catch Lazio in 3^rd place, for the final champions league spot, so they need to win tonight. Let’s have a look at the stats.

As we can see from the graph, Napoli have a superior Success rate and winning% and WOG%.

Looking at the goals scored per game (GPG), we can see that Napoli come out well on top, although in the last 6 matches, it is somewhat closer. Looking at goals conceded per game (GCPG) we can see that the teams are more evenly matched. However, over the last 6 matches Napoli’s defence has been very tight indeed. Also looking at total goals, Napoli’s matches tend to contain more goals.

Looking at the clean sheet (CS) stats, we can see that both teams keep a similar percentage of clean sheets, with the exception of the last 6 matches, were Napoli are particularly stingy at the back. Also if we look at the failed to score percentages over the season, we can see that Cagliari have a much higher percentage.

So Looking at the overall form for the season, we can see that Napoli have only lost 5 games to Cagliari’s 9. Napoli have also won 11 compared to Cagliari’s 7. Looking at the last 6 matches we can see that Napoli have won 4 and lost 0, Cagliari on the other hand have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2.

Looking at the home vs. away form we can see that again Napoli come out on top. Cagliari have not won a away match in the last 6.

Napoli score 1^st at home more than Cagliari score 1^st away from home. Also Cagliari concede 1^st more often away than Napoli do at home.

Now let’s have a look at the scoring times

As we can see Napoli score a higher percentage of their goals in the 1^st half at home, compared to Cagliari away from home. Cagliari score a high percentage of goals away from home in the last 15 minutes of matches.

Looking at the conceding times, Napoli concede 30% of their home goals in the 1^st half compared to Cagliari’s 47%.

Looking at the H2H’s, Napoli have only won 2 of the last 11 matches against Cagliari. There have been 3 Cagliari wins and 6 draws. At Napoli there has been 1 home win, 1 away win and three draws in the last 5. Napoli are undefeated against Cagliari in the last 5 overall, winning 2 and drawing 3.

Verdict:- Looking at the stats they suggest a Napoli win. Napoli are in form and Cagliari’s away form is not good of late. Having said that, Cagliari don’t concede many goals, but also don’t score many. I think this will be a tight game, as Napoli will have one eye on the champions league match against Chelsea coming up next week. I think I will lay the draw for the usual 5% of bank and look to lay over 2.5 goals for the 1^st 15 mins of the game.