London Derby

Today’s early kick-off in the premiership is a tasty London Derby between Chelsea and Arsenal. Chelsea lie in 5th position 5pts behind spurs in 4th. Spurs are in free-fall at the moment and Chelsea after a good run under Di-matteo lost to City mid-week. So who will come out on top today? Let’s have a look at the stats.

League Form
•    Looking at the last 10 matches in the league, Chelsea have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3. However, their defeat, away mid-week to Man City, was the first for new manager Di-Matteo in all competitions (aka. John Terry!!)
•    Looking at the last 10 matches in the league, Spurs have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4. Spurs are in free-fall and have not won in the last 4 matches (losing 3 and drawing 1).
•    Looking at the current form (last 6), Chelsea have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 8 goals (1.33gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 macthes.
•    Looking at the current form (last 6), Spurs have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 10 goals (1.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at the current home form (last 6), Chelsea have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.17gpg). They kept 3 clean sheets and scored in every match.
•    Looking at the current away form (last 6), Spurs have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 10 goals (1.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and they have scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
H2H’s
•    Looking at the last 11 matches, Chelsea have won 4 and spurs have won 3, with 4 draws making up the numbers. At Chelsea, there has been 4 Chelsea wins in the last 5 matches. Spurs have won 0 and there has been 1 draw.
•    Indeed Spurs have not won at Chelsea in the whole premiership history. The last time they won at Chelsea was 1990.

General Stats
•    Against the top 4 sides (Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea and Arsenal), Spurs have only won 1 and drawn 1 and lost 5. Away from home they have lost all 3 against the top 4 sides so far.
•    Both teams score in Chelsea’s home matches 71% of the time. Both teams score in Spurs away matches 64% of the time.
•    Chelsea score 1st at home 79% of the time. Spurs score 1st away from home 57% of the time.
•    71% of Chelsea’s home matches have over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half. 57% of Spurs away matches have over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half.
•    100% of Chelsea’s home matches contain a goal. 93% of Spurs away matches contain a goal.
•    78% of the time there is a goal in the 1st half of Chelsea’s home matches. 64% of the time there is a goal in the 1st half of Spurs away matches.
•    85% of the time there is a goal in the 2nd half of Chelsea’s home matches. 85% of the time there is a goal in the 2nd half of Spurs away matches.
•    Both teams don’t keep many clean sheets. Chelsea, 29% at home. Spurs 21% away.
•    Chelsea have scored in every home game this season in the league (100%). Spurs have scored in 79% of their away games in the league this season.
•    64% of the time Chelsea score in the 1st half at home. 50% of the time, Spurs score in the 1st half away.
•    78% of the time Chelsea score in the 2nd half at home. 57% of the time, Spurs score in the 2nd half away.
•    On average both teams Home vs Away matches contain a goal in the 1st 15 mins 43% of the time.
•    Chelsea’s home matches contain the 1st goals before 68mins 92% of the time. Spurs away matches contain the 1st goals before 68mins 93% of the time.
•    Chelsea score the 1st goal at home before 68mins 71% of the time. Spurs score the 1st goal  away from home before 68mins 57% of the time.
•    71% of the time Chelsea are leading before 68mins at home.57% of the time spurs are leading before 68mins away from home.
•    On average 40% of both teams home vs away matches contain a goal in the last 15 minutes.
•    100% of Chelsea’s matches at home have 1 goal or more. 93% of Spurs matches away have 1 goal or more.
•    85% of Chelsea’s home matches have over 1.5 goals. 85% of Spurs away matches have over 1.5 goals.
•    79% of Chelsea’s home matches have over 2.5 goals. 64% of Spurs away matches have over 2.5 goals.
•    Against the top four teams, all of Spurs away matches (3) have had over 2.5 goals
•    Against spurs graded teams, all of Chelsea’s home matches (3) have had over 2.5 goals

Verdict:- Derbies are always hard to call. Looking at the stats, you have to say that Chelsea have a slight edge. Under Di-Matteo, Chelsea have only lost 1 match and won 4. The match they lost was away to Man City. Spurs on the other hand, are in free-fall. They were 10 points ahead of Arsenal and now they find themselves 1 point behind them, with no win in the last 4. Chelsea’s home form is not bad, they have a success rate of 71% compared to Spurs away success rate of 53.6%.  Chelsea have a winning % of 64.3% at home and Spurs have a winning % away of 42.8%. Terry is back for Chelsea and they always look better when he plays. Drogba starts, which suggests they are not risking resting players for the upcoming Champions league match. Spurs have a strong starting line-up too. However, Ledley King and Dawson don’t play and when they don’t play they tend to concede goals. I think Chelsea will edge it 2-1

Strategies I will consider:-

Lay the draw, stop loss 1.7 for 5% of bank. If Spurs score 1st, depending on how the game is progressing and the time I will look to lay Spurs.
Backing over 2.5 goals for 2.5% of bank, as 40% chance of early goal. If early goal then I will hedge out. If 0-0 at HT, then I will hedge out and look to back over 1.5 goals, depending on how the play is going.