Tonight’s football action pits Wolfsburg, who are 9th, against Hamburg, who are 14th, 5th from bottom. Who will come out on top, let’s have a look at the stats.

League form
•    In the last 10 matches, Wolfsburg have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3, they are undefeated in the last 3 and have won the last 2.
•    In the last 10 matches, Hamburg have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5. They have not won in the last 5 and have lost the last 3. Hamburg, are free falling down the league at the moment.
•    The current form (last 6) for Wolfsburg has seen 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg and conceded 11 goals (1.83gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
•    The current form (last 6) for Wolfsburg has seen 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses. They have scored 5 goals (0.83gpg) and conceded 14 goals (2.33gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at home form (last 6), Wolfsburg have Won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1.0gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and have scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at away form (last 6), Hamburg have Won2, drawn 3 and lost 1. They have scored 6 goals (1.0gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1.0gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
H2H’s
•    In the last 11 matches between the two sides, Wolfsburg have won 4 and Hamburg have won 3, the rest have been draws. In the last 5 home H2H’s, Wolfsburg have won 2 and Hamburg have won 2.

General Stats
•    Hamburg have lost the last 3 matches against Freiburg, Schalke and Stuttgart. They have scored 2 goals and concede 10.
•    Wolfsburg have won the last two matches against Nurnberg and Leverkusen, scoring 6 goals and conceding 3.
•    Wolfsburg score 1st in their home games 54% of the time compared to 33% of the time for Hamburg’s away matches.
•    A goal is scored in Wolfsburg’s home matches 92% of the time. A goal is scored in Hamburg’s away matches 92% of the time.
•    A goal is scored in the 1st half of Wolfsburg’s home matches 62% of the time. A goal is scored in the 1st half of Hamburg’s away matches 66% of the time.
•    A goal is scored in the 2nd half of Wolfsburg’s home matches 92% of the time. A goal is scored in the 2nd half of Hamburg’s away matches 83% of the time.
•    Wolfsburg have scored in 85% of their home matches. Hamburg have scored in 75% of their away matches.
•    Wolfsburg score in the 1st half of their home matches 54% of the time. Hamburg score in the 1st half of their away matches 33% of the time.
•    Wolfsburg score in the 2nd half of their home matches 77% of the time. Hamburg score in the 2nd half of their away matches 58% of the time.
•    On average 36% of the time there is a goal in the 1st 15 mins of Wolfsburg’s home matches and Hamburg’s away matches.
•    On average 48% of the time there is a goal in the last 15mins of Wolfsburg’s home matches and Hamburg’s away matches.
•    Wolfsburg score the 1st goal of their home matches before 68 mins 39% of the time. Hamburg score the 1st goal of their away matches before 68 mins 25% of the time.
•    Wolfsburg are leading at home before 68 mins 46% of the time. Hamburg are leading away from home before 68 mins 33% of the time.
•    On average 92% of the time there is 1 goal or more in Wolfsburg’s home matches and Hamburg’s away matches.
•    62% of Wolfsburg’s matches at home have over 1.5 goals. 83% of Hamburg’s away matches have over 1.5 goals.
•    62% of Wolfsburg’s matches at home have over 2.5 goals. 58% of Hamburg’s away matches have over 2.5 goals.

Verdict:- Hamburg are on a poor run of late, and are being sucked into the relegation battle, they have lost the last 3 and have no win in the last 5. Also their away record is (W4D4L4). Wolfsburg on the other had have won the last 2 and have a decent home record (W8,D2,L3). The majority of the other stats I have compiled also suggest a home win, or at least for Wolfsburg to score 1st.

Strategies I will consider:-
1.    Wolfsburg are not quite odds on favourites, so I could lay the draw or back Wolfsburg. If I lay the draw I would set a stop loss of 1.7 for 5% of bank. If I back Wolfsburg, I would just back for 5% of bank.
2.    There appears to be no value in backing over 1.5 goals (1.38 vs betfair price of 1.27). However, there maybe some value in backing over 2.5 goals (1.67 vs betfair price of 1.82). Also there could be an early goal with 39% of Wolfsburg’s home matches containing a goal in the 1st 15mins and 33% for Hamburg’s away matches.
3.    I may look to lay the current score with 20 mins to go as well as almost 50% of Wolfburg’s home matches and Hamburg’s away matches contain a goal in the last 15 mins.

If things go wrong:-
1.    When LTD, if 0-0 when odds hit 1.7, hedge out. If Hamburg score 1st, then depending on match time and how the match is proceeding, look to lay hamburg.
2.    If 0-0 at half-time I would hedge out of backing over 2.5 goals. If 1-0 I stay in, risking 2.5% of bank.