Monday Night Football

Arsenal Vs Newcastle
The Monday night football pits Arsenal, who are 4th against Newcastle, who are 6th. Arsenal almost pulled off mission impossible last week in the champions league and seem to be full of confidence at the moment. Can Newcastle dent Arsenal’s mini-revival, or will Arsenal close the gap on 3rd place Spurs to 1pt. Let’s have a look at the stats.

 Looking at the success rates 1st, we can see that both teams are fairly even for the season. However, when we compare home vs. away success rate, Arsenal are miles ahead. Also looking at WOG%, we can see that Arsenal are ahead

 Next we look at goals scored per game. Here we can see that Arsenal score more goals per game. Perhaps, surprisingly, Arsenal actually concede less goals per game than Newcastle. Finally, if we look at the total goals in both teams matches, it averages about 3.0. So this would suggest we could expect some goals in the match tonight.

 Next if we take a look at the number of clean sheets both teams have kept. With the exception of the clean sheets in the last 12 matches, both teams are fairly even. In the last 6 matches, both teams are only keeping about 16% clean sheets. Next if we turn our attention towards the percentages for failing to score. Again both teams figures are fairly even and fairly low, which suggests that both teams should score tonight.

Looking at the overall form and the current form, we can see that Arsenal have an advantage.

 Looking at Overall and current home form vs away form, we can see that once again Arsenal have the advantage.

Let’s take a look at the scoring and conceding 1st stats. We can see that Arsenal score 1st at home 70% of the time compared to Newcastle’s 54% away from home. Arsenal have a slight advantage when it comes to conceding 1st.

H2H’s- In the last 11 matches, Arsenal have won 4, Newcastle have won 2 and there have been 5 draws. At home Arsenal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1.

Verdict:- Arsenal are playing well and aggressively at the moment, they destroyed AC Milan 3-0 last week, and beat Spurs 5-2 and also beat Liverpool 2-1. Van Persie is on fire and as long as he plays, I think Arsenal will win. Looking at the stats, I think Arsenal will either score 1st or be ahead in the match at some point. Therefore, I will lay the draw for 5% of bank. If Newcastle score 1st, I will hedge out and lay Newcastle.
I might also look at backing over 1.5 goals, as 77% of Arsenal’s games at home have been over 1.5 goals. Also 80% of their last 10 matches overall have been over 1.5 goals. Also 84.6% of Newcastle’s matches away from home have been over 1.5 goals. However, I do not want to back over 1.5 goals at the start price of 1.21. I will try and get about 1.5.