The Tyne and Wear Derby

Newcastle Vs. Sunderland

The early premiership kick-off is the Tyne and Wear derby, a feisty encountered is nearly always guaranteed. Can Newcastle continue their excellent run in the derbies or will Sunderland, rejuvenated under Martin O’Neil, take the spoils. Let’s have a look at the stats.

Looking at the success rates and WOG% of both teams, can we pick a clear favourite? Well Newcastle have a healthy lead in the overall success rate for the season, and an even better lead in the home vs. away success rate. Newcastle also have a huge lead when it comes to home vs. away winning%. They are also ahead in home vs. away WOG% and home vs. away 1^st half WOG%. Only when looking at the home vs. away 2^nd half WOG% do Sunderland offer any competition. This suggests a Newcastle win and it suggests that Newcastle may score 1^st.

Let’s have a look at how many goals the two teams have scored and conceded.

As we can see, the two teams are fairly even when it comes to goals scored per game, when comparing the overall season, 24 matches, 18 matches, 12 matches and 6 matches. Newcastle have  a slight edge when it comes to goals scored per game, across the whole spectrum. However, if we look at the goals conceded per game Sunderland have the edge, indeed looking at the stats, Sunderland have steadily conceded about 1.1 gpg. However, as the season has progressed Newcastle’s goals conceded per game figure has increased to 2.2. So Newcastle are conceding more goals than they were at the beginning of the season. The total goals figures show that there are slightly more goals in Newcastle’s games than Sunderland’s. No definitive conclusions from this data.

Now let’s take a look at the number of clean sheets and how many times a team has failed to score.

Both teams are fairly even when looking at clean sheets throughout the season, with the exception of the last 6 matches, were Sunderland are miles ahead with 50% clean sheets. Looking at the failed to score figures, Newcastle have a low and therefore better figures than Sunderland all the way throughout the season, with the last 6 games bringing the biggest difference between the two teams. This suggests that this game maybe a tight one, Newcastle score in more games than Sunderland, but Sunderland keep more clean sheets in recent games. Again, no clear winner with this data.

Let’s have a look at form for the season

Looking at the overall form for the season, Newcastle have the advantage. However, looking at the last 6 matches the form is pretty close.

Looking at the last 12 matches home form vs. away form, Newcastle are miles ahead. Looking at the last 6 matches home form vs. away form, Newcastle are still ahead but the advantage is less, although Sunderland have lost 3 of the last 6 away matches. Also in the last 6 home vs. away matches Newcastle have scored in 5 and kept 3 clean sheets. Sunderland have scored in 3 and only kept 1 clean sheet. This gives an advantage to Newcastle.

Now let’s have a look at scoring and conceding times.

As we can clearly see, Newcastle score more goals than Sunderland in the 1^st half and Sunderland score more goals in the 2^nd half than Newcastle.  Both teams tend not to score early goals. Looking at conceding time Sunderland tend to concede a few early goals and Newcastle concede a huge amount of goals just before half time.

Looking at the scoring 1^st and conceding 1^st stats, Newcastle have a big advantage. Obviously this suggests that Newcastle will take the lead

Now let’s take a look at the H2H’s. Newcastle have won 7 of the last 11 meetings between the two sides and they have won 4 of the last 5 home matches. Sunderland have only won 1 of the last 11 meetings and have won 0 of the last 5 at Newcastle. Also, none of the 11 matches produced a 0-0 result. Also 7 of the 11 matches were under 2.5 goals.

Verdict:- I think the stats, particularly the home vs. away stats and the H2H’s gives an advantage to Newcastle. With derbies, you never know what you are going to get, but Newcastle’s record in recent years is very good. However, under Martin O’Neil Sunderland have been hard to beat, with the exception of last week’s away hammering to West Brom. However, I think this game will be a Newcastle win or a draw. Based on the last 11 games producing at least 1 goal, I think I will lay the draw, and hopefully as the data suggests, Newcastle will score 1^st. If Sunderland score 1^st I will hedge out and lay Sunderland. I will also lay over 2.5 goals in this one.