Goals, Goals Goals (Well Hopefully)

Leeds Vs Southampton

The early evening kick-off is a championship match between Leeds and Southampton. It is 10^th vs. 1^st. Can the Southampton machine keep on track for automatic promotion or can Leeds cause an upset and get the vital three points to ensure they get back on track for making the play-offs. Let’s have a look at the stats.

So let’s take a look at the success rate and WOG%. The data above is a mixed bag with no clear favourite. As we can see Southampton have a higher overall success rate, but Leeds have a higher home success rate than Southampton’s away success rate. Leeds also have a much higher home winning% when compared to Southampton’s away winning%. The WOG% for home vs. away are fairly even. However, Southampton have a much higher WOG% for the 1^st half, the 2^nd half Leeds have a higher WOG%. This might suggest that Southampton would score first.

If we look at goals scored per game the stats are fairly close, with Southampton just having the edge. When it comes to goals conceded per game, Southampton have a significant edge. Finally looking at total goals per game, both teams are fairly even and the total goals per game are quite high. This suggest we might get over 2.5 goals in this game.

If we look at the number of clean sheets over the season and 24, 18, 12 and 6 matches, Southampton win hands down. However, the stats for failing to score in matches are very even for the season, and very low. However, for the last 24, 18 and 12 matches, Southampton are the surprising losses here, having more FTS’s than Leeds. However, the last 6 matches both teams seem to be scoring in almost every game. Again this points to goals.

Looking at the overall and current form for this season, we can see that Southampton come out on top once again. What about the home vs. away form?

Leeds come out on top with respect to wins. However, Leeds have lost more games than Southampton have. The problem with Southampton’s away form is that they draw too many matches.

Verdict:- This is a tough one to call, Southampton are flying at home, but they are inconsistent away from home and as for Leeds, they are just very inconsistent full stop. The odds for this game have Southampton as slight favourites, so I think for this game I will lay the draw as I suspect we will make a profit whoever scores. I will also lay under 2.5 goals for 2.5% of bank from the start.