Chelsea Vs Benfica

Tonight’s round of quarter final champions league matches, feature Chelsea, Benfica, Real Madrid and Apoel Nicosia. There may be some trading opportunities in the Chelsea Vs Benfica match, so let’s have a look at the stats.

Current League Form
•    In the last 10 matches Chelsea have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3. They are undefeated in the last 4.
•    In the last 10 matches Benfica have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2. They are undefeated in the last 4.
•    Looking at Chelsea’s current form (last 6), they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 12 goals (2gpg) and conceded 7 goals (1.17gpg). They have kept only 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at Benfica’s current form (last 6), they have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at Chelsea’s current home form (last 6). They have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the last 6 matche.
•    Looking at Benfica’s current away form (last 6). They have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 3 of the last 6 matches.

Champions League form
•    Chelsea have W5D2L2. They have scored 19 goals (2.1gpg) and conceded 8 goals (0.88gpg). They have kept 4/9 clean sheets and scored in every match. Chelsea have played 4 home matches, they have won them all and have only conceded 1 goal. They have scored 14 goals (3.5gpg) at home and conceded 1 goal (0.25gpg) at home. 4/4 home matches have been over 1.5 goals. 3 of the 4 home matches have been over 2.5 goals.
•    Benfica have W4D3L2. They have scored 12 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 8 goals (0.88gpg). They have kept 4/9 clean sheets and have scored in 8 of the 9 matches. Benfica have played 4 away matches, they have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 7 goals (1.75gpg) away. They have conceded 5 goals (1.25gpg) away. 2 of the 4 away matches have been over 2.5 goals. 3 of the 4 away matches have been over 1.5 goals.

H2H’s
•    No real H2H’s apart from the first leg.

General Stats
•    Chelsea score 1st at home in the league 73% of the time and 100% of the time in the champions league.
•    93% of Chelsea’s home matches in the league contain a goal. 100% of Chelsea’s home matches in the champion’s league contain a goal.
•    83% of Benfica’s away matches in the league contain a goal. 100% of Benfica’s away matches in the champions league contain a goal.
•    Chelsea keep a clean sheet at home 33% of the time in the league. Chelsea keep a clean sheet at home 75% of the time in the champions league.
•    Benfica keep a clean sheet away 50% of the time in the league. Benfica keep a clean sheet away 50% of the time in the champion’s league.
•    Chelsea score in 93% of their home matches in the league. Chelsea score in 100% of their home matches in the champion’s league.
•    Benfica score in 75% of their away matches in the league. Benfica score in 100% of their away matches in the champion’s league.
•    80% of Chelsea’s home matches in the league contain over 1.5 goals. 100% of Chelsea’s home matches in the champions league contain over 1.5 goals.
•    50% of Benfica’s away matches in the league contain over 1.5 goals. 75% of Benfica’s away matches in the champions league contain over 1.5 goals.
•    73% of Chelsea’s home matches in the league contain over 2.5 goals. 75% of Chelsea’s home matches in the champions league contain over 2.5 goals.
•    42% of Benfica’s away matches in the league contain over 2.5 goals. 50% of Benfica’s away matches in the champions league contain over 2.5 goals (the last 2).

Verdict

Looking at the stats, particularly Chelsea’s home form in the league and Champions league, I cannot see Chelsea losing this match. Benfica are a good side and the stats suggest that they may be able to score a goal. However, the stats also suggest that Chelsea will score too. I think Chelsea will win this 2-1 or draw 1-1. I will look to back Chelsea from the start. The stats also suggest there may be two goals, so I will wait for the first 15-20mins, if still 0-0 I will back over 1.5 goals.