Man City Vs Man Utd

Tonight’s match has been described as the biggest game in Premiership history. Man City, who are 2nd, face Man Utd, who are top of the table. Let’s have a look at the stats.

If we look at the last 10 matches, Man City have W6D2L2. Man Utd have W8D1L1. If we look at the last 6 matches, Man City have W3D2L1, they have scored 16 goals (2.67gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. 3/6 have been over 2.5 goals. Man Utd have W4D1L1 of the last 6, they have scored 13 goals (2.17gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.83gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. 2/6 have been over 2.5 goals.

If we look at current home form for Man City, they have W5D1L0, indeed they have only drawn 1 game at home all season in the league, winning all the rest. They have scored 17 goals (2.83gpg) in the last 6 at home. They have conceded 4 goals (0.67gpg) and kept 4 clean sheets. They have scored in all 6 matches. 5/6 have been over 2.5 goals. If we look at Man Utd away from home in the last 6; they have W4D1L1, they have scored 15 goals (2.5gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. 4/6 have been over 2.5 goals.

If we look at the H2H’s in the last 11 matches in the league; Man Utd have won 7, Man City have won 3 and there has been 1 draw (0-0). 5/11 have been over 2.5 goals and 6/11 have been over 1.5 goals. If we look at the last 5 matches at Man City, there has been only 1 Man City win (that season they did the double of Man Utd!!!), 3 Man Utd wins and 1 draw. 0/5 have been over 2.5 goals and 0/5 have been over 1.5 goals.

Verdict:- This is a close game to call and I think it will be a tight game to start with. Both teams have conceded 0 goals in the 1st 30mins when looking at home vs. away form. Therefore, we might have a 0-0 1st half. Both teams conceded 80% and 77% of their home vs. away goals in the 2nd half.  Man City score 1st 88% of the time at home and Man Utd score 1st 76% of the time away from home. I think this game will be a score draw or maybe a tight Man City win. There may be some merit in laying the current score late in the game as both teams score late goals. 52.9%of Man City’s home matches and Man Utd’s away matches have a goal in the last 15 mins, or may be even laying the draw in the 2nd half