After last night’s shock result, Chelsea will play either, Real Madrid or Bayern Munich in the Champions League final. So, who will it be; Bayern Munich have a slender 2-1 lead after the 1st leg. However, Real Madrid have the all important away goal that Barcelona failed to get against Chelsea.
Current League Form
• In the last 10 matches Real Madrid have won 7 and drawn 3.
• In the last 10 matches Bayern Munich have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2.
• If we look at the last 6 matches, Real Madrid have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 0. They have scored 19 goals (3.17gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.83gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
• If we look at the last 6 matches, Bayern Munich have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 4 goals (0.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
• If we look at the last 6 matches at home for Real Madrid, they have won 4 ,drawn 2 and lost 0. They have scored 18 goals (3gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
• If we look at the last 6 matches away for Bayern Munich, they have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 2. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 4 goals (0.67gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 3 of the 6 matches.
Champions League form
• Real Madrid have P11W9D1L1. They have scored 33 goals (3gpg) and conceded 8 (0.73pg). They have kept 6/11 clean sheets (54.5%) and they have scored in all 11 matches.
• Bayern Munich have P11W8D1L2. They have scored 24 goals (2.18gpg) and conceded 8 goals (0.73gpg). They have kept 5/11 clean sheets (45%) and they have scored in 9 of the 11 matches.
• Looking at Real Madrid’s home form they have P5W5. They have scored 22 goals (4.4gpg) and conceded 5 (1gpg). They have kept 2/5 clean sheets (40%) and they have scored in all 5 matches.
• Looking at Bayern Munich’s away form they have P5W2D1L2. They have scored 5 goals (1gpg) and conceded 4 goals (0.8gpg). They have kept 2/5 clean sheets (40%) and they have scored in 3 of the 5 matches.
H2H’s
• In the last 9 matches (all CL matches), Real Madrid have won 3, Bayern Munich have won 5 and there has been 1 draw. There has been no 0-0’s and 5 of the 9 matches have been over 2.5 goals. 7 of the 9 matches have been over 1.5 goals.
• In the last 4 matches at Real Madrid; Bayern Munich have won 1, Real Madrid have won 3 and there has been 0 draw’s. 1 of 4 have been over 2.5 goals and 2 of 4 have been over 1.5 goals.
General League Stats
• Real Madrid score 1st in 59% of their home matches.
• Bayern score 1st in 37.5% of their away matches.
• At home Real Madrid keep 23.5% clean sheets.
• Away from home Bayern keep 44% clean sheets
• Real Madrid have scored in 94% of their home matches.
• Bayern have scored in 75% of their away matches.
• Real Madrid score in the 1st half at home 88% of the time.
• Bayern Munich score in the 1st half away 31% of the time.
• Real Madrid score in the 2nd half at home 76% of the time.
• Bayern Munich score in the 2nd half away 69% of the time.
• There is a goal in the 1st 15mins of Real Madrid’s home matches 59% of the time.
• There is a goal in the 1st 15mins of Bayern Munich’s away matches 25% of the time.
• There is a goal in the last 15 mins of Real Madrid’s home matches 59% of the time.
• There is a goal in the last 15 mins of Bayern Munich’s away matches 37.5% of the time.
• 88% of Real Madrid’s home matches are over 2.5 goals.
• 50% of Bayern Munich’s away matches are over 2.5 goals.
• Both teams score more goals in the 2nd half. Real score 59% of their home goals in the 2nd half and Bayern score 67% of their away goals in the 2nd half.
• However, Real Madrid concede 61% of their home goals in the 1st half and Bayern concede 60% of their away goals in the 2nd half.
• In fact Real Madrid concede 50% of their home goals in the 1st 30mins compared to 33.3% for Bayern away.
• Real score 19% of their goals in the 1st 30mins at home compared to 30% away for Bayern.
Verdict:- Everybody, expects this to be an easy Real Madrid win, but as the stats show the teams are fairly even, and there could be a few twists and turns. Both teams don’t concede many goals. However, not surprisingly, Real Madrid score more goals per game overall, at home and in the champions league, so Bayern could be in for a tough night. However, Bayern have some good attacking players too and I expect both teams to score. Looking at the stats, there could be an early goal, so it could be worth laying over 2.5 goals or the 0-0. As for the match itself, I think Real Madrid will win, but I will wait and see how the match progresses before getting involved in the match market. As for which team goes through, that is a hard one to call. It may be extra time in this one, and possibly the ‘Special one’ will face his old club in the final.
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