Race For The Title

I thought I would have a look at the last 8 matches of the season for Man Utd and Man City and take a look at the history of the last 10 premiership seasons, to try and shed some statistical light on who will win the title. I must add that these thoughts were compiled before the Man City Vs Sunderland match.

Man Utd

2001-2002 Season
•    Finished 3rd 10pts behind Arsenal. They were not top with 8 games to go.
•    W5D1L2 16pts. Scored 14 goals. Conceded 8 goals.
2002-2003 Season
•    Finished 1st 5pts ahead of Arsenal.  They were not top with 8 games to go. (2pts behind Arsenal)
•    W7D1L0 22pts. Scored 26 goals. Conceded 7 goals.
2003-2004 Season
•    Finished 3rd 15pts behind Arsenal. They were not top with 8 games to go (12pts behind Arsenal)
•    W4D1L3 13pts. Scored 8 goals. Conceded 5 goals.
2004-2005 Season
•    Finished 3rd. 18pts behind Chelsea. They were not top with 8 games to go (19pts behind Chelsea)
•    W4D1L3 13pts. Scored 8 goals. Conceded 5 goals
2005-2006 Season
•    Finished 2nd. 8pts behind Chelsea.  They were not top with 8 games to go (9pts behind Chelsea)
•    W5D2L1 17pts. Scored 11 goals. Conceded 5 goals
2006-2007 Season
•    Finished 1st. 6pts ahead of Chelsea. There were top with 8 games to go (6pts ahead of Chelsea)
•    W4D2L2 13pts. Scored 13 goals. Conceded 6 goals
2007-2008 Season
•    Finished 1st. 2pts ahead of Chelsea. They were top with 8 games to go (5pts ahead of Chelsea, 3pts ahead of Arsenal)
•    W5D2L1 17pts. Scored 19 goals. conceded 7 goals
2008-2009 Season
•    Finished 1st. 4pts ahead of Liverpool. They were top with 8 games to go (4pts ahead of Liverpool)
•    W7D1L0 22pts. Scored 16 goals. Conceded 4 goals
2009-2010 Season
•    Finished 2nd. 1pt behind Chelsea. They were top with 8 games to go (1pt ahead of Chelsea)
•    W6D1L1 19pts. Scored 16 goals. Conceded 4 goals
2010-2011 Season
•    Finished 1st. 9pts ahead of Chelsea. They were top with 8 games to go (8pts ahead of Chelsea)
•    W5D2L1 17pts. Scored 14 goals. Conceded 7 goals
2011-2012 Season
•    8 games to go Man Utd 3pts ahead???

Trends
•    Man Utd have been top of the league with 8 matches to play 4 out of the last 10 seasons.
•    They have won the league 3 of them 4 seasons.
•    Man Utd have averaged 17 points in the last 8 matches of the last 10 seasons.
•    Man Utd on average have lost 1.4 matches in the last 8 matches of the last 10 seasons.
•    Man Utd only went undefeated in their last 8 matches of each  season in 2 of the last 10 seasons
•    Man Utd on average have drawn 1.4 matches in the last 8 matches of the last 10 seasons.
•    Man Utd have drawn at least 1 of their last 8 matches of each season in the last 10 seasons.

Unfortunately, in recent years, Man City have not been in a position to win the title going into the last 8 matches, so there is no data for them. We could just look at Man City’s last 8 matches in the last 10 seasons. However, with the pressure of the title race being absent and in some seasons having ‘nothing to play for syndrome’, the results would be irrelevant.
Now let’s take a look at the final fixtures.


Man Utd
Blackburn (A) - Man Utd have only won 3 of the last 10 matches at Blackburn. Blackburn, traditionally has been a sticky patch for Man Utd. However, Blackburn are struggling to avoid the drop this season, but of late have been on a good run.
QPR (H) - Since the premiership began, Man Utd have won 4 of the 5 matches against QPR at Old Trafford
Wigan (A) - In the last 6 seasons, Man Utd have a 100% at Wigan
Aston Villa (H) - In the last 10 seasons, Man utd have won 8 of the 10 encounters against Aston Villa. Villa have won 1 and the other was a draw.
Everton (H) - In the last 10 season, Man Utd have won 8 of the 10 encounters against Everton, the other two being draws.
Man City (A) - Man City have won 4 of the last 9 against Man Utd at Man City’s ground. Man Utd have won 4 and there has been 1 draw.
Swansea (H) - No recent H2H’s for this fixture.
Sunderland (A) - 5 of the last 7 meetings at Sunderland have been Man Utd’s wins, Sunderland have yet to win, only managing two draws.

Man City
Sunderland (H) - 6 of the last 6 matches at Man City, have been city wins.
Arsenal (A) - City have not won at Arsenal in the last 9 league matches. Six of the last nine matches at Arsenal have been Arsenal wins, the rest have been draws.
West Brom (H) - Man City have won 2 of the last 5 at home to West Brom. West Brom have won 1 and the rest have been draws.
Norwich (A) - Only one H2H at Norwich, in the premiership, which Man City won.
Wolves (A) - Wolves have won 2 of the last 3 home matches against Man City.
Man Utd (H) - Man City have won 4 of the last 9 against Man Utd at Man City’s ground. Man Utd have won 4 and there has been 1 draw.
Newcastle (A) - Newcastle have won 4 of the last 8 matches at home, Man City have won 3 and there has been 1 draw.
QPR (H) - No Recent H2H’s data


Conclusions
During the crunch time of the premiership, there are no easy games. However, looking at the stats, Man City have a far tougher ‘run-in’ to Man Utd. Having said that Man Utd in the past 10 seasons, have normally lost 1 or 2 matches during the last 8 matches of the season, or drawn at least 1 or 2  matches. If Man Utd are going to drop points, the Blackburn and the Man City fixtures are the potential banana skins. Everybody is pointing to the Manchester derby as being the deciding fixture, but I think it could be all over by then. As the stats show, when Man Utd hit the front, they rarely relinquish the lead, they know how to grind out the results and have the experience of being in this position before. Man City are new to all of this pressure, and I can see Man City dropping more points over the coming 8 matches than Man Utd. I think Man Utd will win the league by 5-6pts