Who will face West Ham in the Championship play-off final at Wembley. Will it be Blackpool, who have a narrow 1-0 lead going into this 2nd leg, or will it be Birmingham. Let’s have a look at the stats.
Current League form
• The last 10 matches for Birmingham have seen them win 4, draw 5 and lose 1. Not including the 1st leg at Blackpool, they are undefeated in the last 9 championship matches of the season.
• The last 10 matches for Blackpool have seen then win 5, draw 4 and lose 1
• Looking at the last 6 matches in the league, Birmingham have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 0. They have scored 12 goals (2gpg) and conceded 8 goals (1.33gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in all 6 matches.
• Looking at the last 6 matches in the league, Blackpool have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 0. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
• Looking at Birmingham’s last 6 home matches, they have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 0. They have scored 13 goals (2.17gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches.
• Looking at Blackpool’s last 6 matches, they have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 3. They have scored 7 goals (1.17gpg) and conceded 10 goals (1.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
H2H’s
• If we look at the last 7 matches, including the 1st leg, Birmingham have won 3, Blackpool have won 3 and there has been 1 draw. There has been no 0-0’s. 3/7 have been over 2.5 goals and 5/7 have been over 1.5 goals.
• If we look at the last 3 matches at Birmingham, Birmingham have won 2 (the last 2) and Blackpool have won 1. There has been 0/3 over 2.5 goals and 2/3 over 1.5 goals.
Other Stats
• Birmingham score 1st in 65% of their home matches. Blackpool score 1st in 30% of their away matches.
• Birmingham’s home matches have a goal in the 1st half 65% of the time. Blackpool’s away matches have a goal in the 1st half 83%.
• Birmingham’s home matches have a goal in the 1st 15mins 17% of the time. Blackpool’s away matches have a goal in the 1st 15mins 26% of the time.
• Birmingham only score 37.8% of their goals in the 1st half at home
• Blackpool only score 37.8% of their goals in the 1st half away from home.
• Both teams concede approximately 50% of their goals in the 1st half. (50% vs 44.8%)
• Birmingham’s home matches have a goal in the last 15mins 48% of the time.
• Blackpool’s away matches have a goal in the last 15mins 74% of the time.
• Birmingham’s home matches have over 1.5 goals 74% of the time.
• Blackpool’s away matches have over 1.5 goals 87% of the time.
• Birmingham’s home matches have over 2.5 goals 47% of the time.
• Blackpool’s away matches have over 2.5 goals 74% of the time.
Verdict:- Looking at the stats, particularly recent home vs. away form, you would have to say that Birmingham should win this match. The stats also suggest the first part of the game may be tight, with most goals normally coming in the 2nd half, so it may be worth laying over 2.5 goals for the 1st 15-20mins. The stats also suggest late goals, so it may be worth laying the current score with 15mins to go, depending on how the match is progressing. When Birmingham score 1st at home they win 80% of their matches, they have not lost when scoring 1st. Blackpool on the other hand have only won 57% when scoring 1st, so there could be an option of laying Blackpool if they take the lead. There is value in backing over 2.5 goals also, the odds should be around 1.64, but they are 1.82. However, if you are thinking of backing over 2.5 goals, only 3/7 recent H2H’s have been over 2.5 goals and 0 of the last 3 at Birmingham have been over 2.5 goals.
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