Sorry I did not have chance to post stats and thoughts on last night’s 1st Semi-Final between Cardiff and West Ham. Tonight’s Semi-Final pits Blackpool against Birmingham. Let’s have a look at the stats.
Current League Form
• Blackpool have won 5, drew 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches. 6/10 have been over 2.5 goals.
• Birmingham have won 4, drew 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches. 6/10 have been over 2.5 goals.
• If we look at the last 6 matches in more detail we can see that Blackpool have P6W3D3L0. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches. 2/6 have been over 2.5 goals.
• If we look at Birmingham’s last 6 matches, we can see that they have P6W2D4L0. They have scored 12 goals (2gpg) and conceded 8 goals (1.33gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and scored in all 6 matches. 3/6 have been over 2.5 goals.
• If we look at the last 6 home matches for Blackpool, they have P6W4D2L0. They have scored 15 goals (2.5gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.83gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches. 4/6 have been over 2.5 goals and 5/6 have been over 1.5 goals.
• If we look at the last 6 matches for Birmingham, they have P6W2D3L1. They have scored 12 goals (2gpg) and conceded 11 goals (1.83gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches. 4/6 have been over 2.5 goals and 6/6 have been over 1.5 goals.
H2H’s
• In the last 6 H2H’s, Blackpool have won 2, Birmingham have won 3 and there has been 1 draw (2-2). 3/6 have been over 2.5 goals and 5/6 have been over 1.5 goals.
• If we look at the last 3 H2H’s at Blackpool we can see that Blackpool have won 1, Birmingham have won 1 and there has been 1 draw. 2/3 have been over 2.5 goals and 3/3 have been over 1.5 goals.
Verdict:- Blackpool are the slight favourites in this one, but they are not ‘odds-on’ favourites. Out of the two teams Blackpool have the slightly better recent form. Both teams score goals; Blackpool edging the stats when comparing the recent home vs. away form, but looking at the last 6 matches overall Birmingham edge the goal scoring stats. However, Blackpool, surprisingly have the better defensive stats, overall and at home. Indeed, Birmingham have only kept 2 clean sheets away from home this season in the league. Blackpool score first at home 47.8% of the time. Birmingham score first away from home 61% of the time. Blackpool’s home matches tend not to have early goals, with only 4.4% of their matches having a goal in the first 15 minutes. Indeed Blackpool have scored no goals in the first 15 minutes at home. Birmingham’s away matches only have a goal in the first 15 minutes 26% of the time and they have only score 9.8% of their goals away from home in the first 15 minutes. So laying over 2.5 goals for the first 15-20 minutes may be an option; However, Birmingham do score in the 1st half of away matches 65% of the time. Both teams’ matches also involve late goals with 57% of Blackpool’s home matches containing a goal in the last 15 minutes and 65% of Birmingham’s away matches containing a goal in the last 15 minutes, so laying the current score late in the game may be worthwhile. Birmingham have taken the lead in 14 of their 23 matches away from home this season; However, they have only won 4 of those matches, drawing 5 and losing 5. Therefore, if Birmingham score first, a lay of Birmingham could be a good option. Blackpool score first in 11 of their 23 home matches. However, they have won 9 and drawn 2 and lost 0.
I think Blackpool will win this one, but the stats suggest that Birmingham may score 1st. Birmingham concede more goals in the 2nd half and Blackpool score more in the 2nd half, so Blackpool might just come back and win 2-1
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