England Vs Italy

The final quarter final takes place tonight, and on paper it is the closest quarter final. England take on Italy for a place in the semi-final against the German’s. Let’s have a look at the stats.

England’s record in the tournament so far reads, P3W2D1L0. They have scored 5 goals (1.66gpg) and have conceded 3 goals (1gpg). They have kept 1/3 clean sheets and have scored in 3/3 matches. 1/3 matches has been over 2.5 goals and 2/3 have been over 1.5 goals. If we look at England’s qualifying campaign it reads, P8W5D3L0. They have scored 17 goals (2.125gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.625gpg). They have kept 5/8 clean sheets and have scored in 7/8 matches.  5/8 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Italy’s record in the tournament so far reads, P3W1D2L0. They have scored 4 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.66gpg). They have kept 1/3 clean sheets and have scored in 3/3 matches. 0/3 matches have been over 2.5 goals and 3/3 have been over 1.5 goals. If we look at Italy’s qualifying campaign it reads, P10W8D2L0. They have scored 20 goals (2gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.2gpg). They have kept 8/10 clean sheets and have scored in 9/10 matches. 5/10 matches were over 2.5 goals.

If we look at the H2H’s and the last 8 meetings; England have won 1, Italy have won 5 and there have been 2 draws. Their last meeting was in 2001/2002. When the teams have played each other in a world cup or Euro match, England have only won once, Italy have won 4 and there has been 1 draw. 3 of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Only 1/6 matches when they have played each other in the World cup or Euro’s has been over 2.5 goals.

The Bookies cannot separate the teams for this one, and current form and H2H’s suggest this will be tight. England, during this campaign so far, have been organised and determine. They have not played pretty football but have gotten the job done. Italy keep the ball better than England and as usual they are organised in defence, but have not created a lot up front. I think this one could be the first 0-0 in 90 minutes for the tournament. I am being biased here, but if Rooney can play well I think England have a chance here. Hodgson has got them believing and firstly being hard to beat. I think England will edge it 1-0, maybe in extra time. I will look to lay over 2.5 goals in the 1^st 15-20 minutes. Depending on how the game is progressing I might Lay the draw if I can get odds of 2 or less. However, as I am not confident I will use half stakes.