Portugal Vs Spain

Portugal vs. Spain is the first semi-final of the Euro’s. Spain are the defending champions, and are the favourites, along with German, to win the title. As you would expect, Spain are the favourites to win this semi-final match against Portugal. Will it be that straight forward, or can Portugal cause an upset? Let’s have a look at the stats.

Portugal’s form in the tournament so far reads, P4W3D0L1. They have scored 6 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 4 goals (1gpg). They have kept 1 clean sheet and have scored in 3 of their 4 matches. Two of their four matches have been over 2.5 goals. If we look at their qualifying campaign it reads, P8W5D1L1. They have scored 21 goals (2.6gpg) and conceded 12 goals (1.5gpg). They have only kept 2 clean sheets but they have scored in 7 of their 8 matches. Six of their eight matches were over 2.5 goals. In all of Portugal’s matches, 12 in total, there has been 43 goals, 8 goals (18.6%) have come in the first 20 minutes. Twenty goals (46.5%) have come in the first half and 23 (53.5%) have come in the second half. Looking at the games themselves, 5 (42%) matches have had a goal in the first 20 minutes, 9 (75%) matches have had a goal in the first half and 11 (92%) matches have had a goal in the second half. Perhaps more importantly though is during these finals 2 (50%) of Portugal’s matches have had a goal in the 1^st half and only 1 (25%) match had a goal in the first 20 minutes.

Spain’s form this tournament so far reads P4W3D1L0. They have scored 8 goals (2gpg) and conceded 1 goal (0.25gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and have scored in all 4 matches. Only 1 of their matches has been over 2.5 goals. If we look at their qualifying campaign it reads, P8W8D0L0. They have scored 26 goals (3.25gpg) and conceded 6 goals (0.75gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and have scored in all 8 matches. Six of their 8 matches were over 2.5 goals. In all of Spain’s matches 12 in total, there has been 41 goals, 6 goals (14.6%) have come in the first 20 minutes. Fourteen goals (34%) have come in the first half and 27 goals (66%) have come in the second half. Looking at the games themselves, 6 (50%) matches have had a goal in the first 20 minutes, 9 (75%) have had a goal in the first half and 11 (92%) matches have had a goal in the second half. Perhaps more importantly though is during these finals 2 (50%) of Spain’s matches had had a goal in the 1^st half and 2 (50%) matches have had a goal in the first 20 minutes.

Looking at the H2H’s since 1990, they have played 8 times, with Spain winning 2, Portugal winning 2 and 4 draws. Three of the last 8 matches have been over 2.5 goals, Portugal won the last meeting 4-0, but that was a friendly.

They have played each other in the world cup and Euro’s overall 6 times, with Spain winning 3, Portugal winning 1 and 2 draws.

I am looking forward to this match, Portugal have gotten better as the tournament has gone on and Spain, well Spain are Spain, they keep the ball and pass you to death. Spain in this tournament have started matches with no recognized forward, I suspect that is because Villa is injured. Torres is in the squad, but tends to come on later in the match. In Spain’s last match, I thought France could cause Spain some problems, but disappointingly France did not turn up. Even when they were 1-0 down they still did not try and attack. In tonight’s match, I think Portugal will be a threat, and I can see Ronaldo and co. getting at least one goal, especially with Ronaldo on the counter attack. I think it is important for Portugal to score first, because if they don’t Spain just keep the ball and you end up chasing ghosts. If Portugal score first then they have a great chance, if Spain score first, then its goodbye Portugal. I am going to stick my neck out and say Portugal to steal it 2-1.

 
I might look to lay over 2.5 goals for the 1^st 20 minutes, if the game starts cagey. I might look to lay the draw later in the match if the game is tight.