Wednesday, 4 July 2012

June’s Trading:- Old Habits Die Hard Part 2


Tennis

I also managed some tennis trading in June. In May, during the French Open I had changed my staking plan to £5 stakes and changed my strategy slightly. I had decent success and apart from the odd loss of discipline I made a profit. Could I keep the discipline going throughout June?



Well the graph above shows the simple answer to be no!!!

As you can see I continued were I left off in May and traded very well during the first half of June. However, during the second half of June I did not do so well. I lost -£17.93 for the month. However, with Tennis I did not lose my discipline. There were only 2 trades were I went past my stop loss. The profit during the first part of the month came when the clay court season and the French Open was still underway. The losses coincide with the grass court season. Why?

Queen’s and Halle were the two grass court tournaments after the French Open. There were quite a few upsets, Murray losing in the 2nd round at Queen’s, Tsonga losing early; Nadal going out in Halle, Federer losing in the final. Maybe better selectivity is required for players playing their first match on a new surface. Something to consider for the future.

So during the month of June I carried out 58 trades, winning 48 and losing 10 trades. That is a strike rate of 82.8%. However if we break this down further, I carried out 23 trades on clay, winning all 23 (100% strike rate). On grass I carried out 35 trades, winning 25 and losing 10. That is a strike rate of 71.4%.
Finally let’s break this down further into the men’s matches on clay and grass and the women’s matches on clay and grass

Men–Trades 42, Winning 36 and losing 6 trades (85.75% strike rate) Profit +£11.75
Men–Clay Courts Trades 13, winning 13 (100% Strike rate) Profit +£24.35
Men–Grass Courts Trades 29, winning 23 and losing 6 trades (88.5%) Profit -£12.60 (Normally an 88.5% strike rate would be making a profit. However, looking at my data I have traded using odds far too low)

Women-Trades 16, winning 12 and losing 4 trades (75% strike rate) Profit -£29.68
Women-Clay Court trades 10, winning 10 (100% strike rate) Profit +£12.91
Women-Grass court trades 6, winning 2 and losing 4 (33.3% strike rate) Profit -£42.58

So we can clearly see that I have been more successful trading men’s matches compared to women’s matches. However, with the exception of the women’s grass court matches, all trades have produced a decent strike rate. This suggests that the strategy needs to be altered.

1.     Set minimum odds for backing a player as 1.5.
2.    Be more selective with matches, especially if a player has not played on the current surface for a while.
3.    Look at changing the stop loss.

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