Saturday 3rd August 2013

Hi folks,

Quite a few picks today, here are my thoughts on a few of the matches:-

QPR Vs Sheff Wed

The stats for this one are not great and don't really support QPR. However, it is always difficult to compare teams who were in different divisions last season. Both teams struggled last season. That said I still think QPR have far too much firepower and should win this one if they are motivated. Also QPR have not lost to Sheff Wed at home in the last five meetings. The goal expectancy for this one is around 2.6, so we should see 2-3 goals.

I will look to LTD from the start in this one with the usual stop loss of 1.9 for 5pts.

Reading Vs Ipswich

This match is similar to the QPR match, the stats don't really support reading. However, I do think they will be to strong for Ipswich. Reading have only lost 1 of the last 5 matches against Ipswich at home. The goal expectancy is 2.6, so we should see 2-3 goals.

I will look to LTD from the start in this one with the usual stop loss of 1.9 for 5pts. I will also look to lay under 1.5 goals if 0-0 after 40 minutes 

Den Haag Vs PSV

The majority of stats are in PSV favour here. I will be looking to LTD, but the starting odds are slightly high, So I will be looking for a better price after 10-15 minutes. Again stop loss 1.9 for 5pts. The goal expectancy is 3.26. So I will be looking to lay under 2.5 goals if 0-0 after 20-25 minutes for 1pt.

Twente Vs Waalwijk

 

 Again the stats are all in  Twente's favour. I will be looking to LTD, but the starting odds are too high, so i will be waiting until 10-15 minutes when the odds are below 5. The goal expectancy is 3, so I will be looking to lay under 2.5 goals after 20-25 minutes for 1pt.

There are a few other matches that I will be looking to LTD in, but only at HT as both teams have similar odds, so I want to wait for a better price:-

Burnley Vs Bolton:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0 or 1-1

Birmingham Vs Watford:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0 of 1-1

Leeds Vs Brighton:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0

Middlesbrough Vs Leicester:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0

Nijmegen Vs Groningen:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0 of 1-1

Heerenveen Vs Alkmaar:- I will LTD at half time if 0-0 or 1-1

I will also be looking at laying under 2.5 goals in some matches, but not until 20 minutes and only for 1pt.