Saturday Early Matches

Hi folks,

I have managed to get a bit more organised over the last couple of days, so here are my thoughts for the early kick off matches today

Burnley Vs Sheff Wed

No trades for this match I can't seem to fine any value for this one

Huddersfield Vs Leeds

No value in LTD and stats are not conclusive

No value in 1st half goals

2nd Half Goals: Huddersfield have a 2nd half goal in 8/12 of their home matches and Leeds have a 2nd half goal in 10/12 of their away matches. This puts the odds at 4.0. If we look at the graded analysis then Huddersfield have 8/8 2nd half goals in home matches and Leeds have 11/12 2nd half goals in away matches. This puts the odds at 24. So I will be laying the HT score if  less than 4.5

Over/Unders: Huddersfield have 7/12 home matches over 2.5 goals and Leeds have 6/12 away matches over 2.5 goals. The odds should be 1.85.
Looking at the graded stats then Huddersfield have 4/8 over 2.5 goals at home and Leeds have 8/12 over 2.5 goals away. The odds should be 1.67.
Looking at the last 8H2H's then 6/8 over 2.5 goals. The odds should be around 1.33.

The actual odds are 2.15 so I will back over 2.5 goals.

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have won 1/4 home matches and drawn 0 and lost 3
Arsenal have won 9/12 away matches and drawn 1 and lost 2
True odds should be Crystal Palace 5.33, draw 16, Arsenal 1.33

No graded stats for Crystal Palace and no H2H's

Actual odds are Crystal Palace 14, draw 6 and Arsenal 1.3

I will LTD if by some miracle Crystal Palace can keep it 0-0 until LTD less than 4.5
1st Half Goals: No value

2nd Half Goals: Crystal Palace 4/4 home matches there is a goal in the 2nd half and Arsenal have a goal in the 2nd half 9/12 away matches. The odds should be 8.0

So if I can lay HT score less than 4.5