Sunday:- Leeds Vs Birmingham

Leeds have won 5/12 matches at home, drawn 2
Birmingham have won 5/12 matches away, drawn 1
So true odds are 8.0 for the draw

Leeds have won 4/12 against grade 'B' opposition at home and drawn 0
Birmingham have won 4/12 against grade 'B' opposition away and drawn 3
So true odds are 8.3

H2H's:- Since 2002/2003 they have played each other 10 times in the league. No draws and Leeds have only won 2 and Birmingham have won 8.

So looking at the odds there is value in LTD at 3.6 (should be 8.0) and backing Birmingham at 3.6 (should be 2.40).

H2H'2 10 matches have yielded 4/10 over 2.5 goals so odds 2.5. However the H2H's were over 13 years, including when Leeds and Birmingham were in the Premiership
Last 12 matches at home for Leeds have yielded 7/12 over 2.5 goals
Last 12 matches away for Birmingham have yielded 6/12 over 2.5 goals
So true odds 1.85

Graded stats for Leeds at home have yielded 9/12 over 2.5 goals
Graded stats for Birmingham away have yielded 9/13 over 2.5 goals
So true odds 1.39

So the true odds should be somewhere around 1.39-1.85. The actual odds are 2.06. So backing over 2.5 goals could have some value

Leeds score in the 1st half in 1/12 home matches
Birmingham score in the lst half in 4/12 away matches
So true odds for 0-0 HT should be 1.26 or at worst 1.50
Leeds score in the 1st half against grade 'B' teams 5/12
Birmingham score in the 1st half against grade 'B' teams 7/13
So true odds for 0-0 HT should be 1.91 or at worst 2.17

Odds for 0-0 HT are 3.15.  So possible value there