Friday Night Football (Part 2)

Nice Vs Marseille

No real value in the match odds for this one but there could be a few other angles

Last 12 matches at home for Nice have seen 3 under 1.5 goals, 7 under 2.5 goals and 9 under 3.5 goals. Marseille have seen their last 12 away matches yield 6 under 1.5 goals, 11 under 2.5 goals and 11 under 3.5 goals. This yields true odds for under 2.5 goals of 1.33, actual odds are 1.69, so some value in backing under 2.5 goals.

Nice have score in 6/12 home matches at home in the 1st half but Marseille have only conceded 2/12 in the 1st half away. Nice have conceded in the 1st half at home 4/12 and Marseille have scored in the 1st half away in 3/12. So true odds for the 0-0 HT should be 1.45, actual odds are 2.6. So some value in backing HT 0-0.

Nice score in the last 15 minutes at home in 4/12 and concede in 1/12. Marseille score in 3/12 in the last 15 minutes away and concede in 1/12. True odds should be 1.23-1.33, actual odds should be around 2.0. Possible some value there.

Reims Vs Toulouse

No value in the match odds
No value in over/unders
A small bit of value in backing 0-0 HT, but not much
Both teams don't score often in the second half. The true odds should be 1.60. HT odd for current score should be around 4.0-4.5

Last 15 mins Reims have scored in 1/12 matches at home and conceded in 1/12
Last 15 mins Toulouse have scored in 2/12 matches away and conceded in 2/12
So odds should be 1.14 and they will normally be around 2.0. So some value there.

Roma Vs Napoli

Roma have won 8/12 matches at home and drawn 2.
Napoli have won 7/12 matches away and drawn 3.
So the draw odds should be 4.80 and the actual odds are 3.55. so some value there.
Roma have won 5/9 against grade 'A' teams at home and drawn 3.
Napoli have won 4/10 against grade 'B' teams away and drawn 4. So the amount of draw are quite high
H2H's yield 3 draws in the last 10, which is about average for the league.
I think I will look to LTD in this match.

Roma have had 2/12 under 1.5 goals, 6/12 under 2.5 goals and 8/12 under 3.5 goals
Napoli have had 1/12 under 1.5 goals, 5/12 under 2.5 goals, and 10/12 under 3.5 goals
No value in these markets

Roma and Napoli have scored in the 1st half 42% of the time. Therefore 0-0 HT should be 1.71, actual odds are 3.45. So good value here.
Roma and Napoli score in the 2nd half 53%-54% of the time. Therefore backing the current score at HT should be around 2.18, actual odds will be around 4-4.5, so could be value here.
Roma and Napoli score in the last 15 mins 27% of the time for the last 12 matches home vs away and 24% of the time in the graded stats. So backing the current score with 15 mins to go should be around 1.37, and will actual be around 2.0. so some value