Saturday 7th December (Early Match)

Hi Folks,

There are a couple of early matches today; one in the premiership and one in the championship. I can not find any value in the Derby Vs Blackpool match, so lets have a look at the premiership match

Man Utd Vs Newcastle

I never thought I would see Man Utd out of the title race before Christmas, but it appears as though this is now the case after their defeat to Everton at home mid-week. Today they host Newcastle, lets have a look at the stats.

Man Utd have won 6/12 home matches, drawn 2 and lost 4
Newcastle have won 4/12 away matches, drawn 2 and lost 6
The true odds should be:- Man Utd 2.0, draw 6.0, Newcastle 3.0

If we look at the graded stats:-
Man Utd have won 6/9 home, drawn 1 and lost 2
Newcastle have won 1/9 away, drawn 1 and lost 7
The true odds should be:- Man Utd 1.39, draw 9.01, Newcastle 5.88

Looking at the H2H's:-
There have been 6/24 draws since 2000 (25%) and at Old Trafford there have been 3/12 draws (25%)

Most of the other stats support a Man Utd win as well. Also Newcastle have not won at Old Trafford since 1973. Although this Man Utd side is not the force it was, now that Fergie has gone, I still think Man Utd will be to strong, especially if Van Persie is back.

There is value in laying the draw at 4.5 and that is what I will be doing.