Happy Christmas

Hi Folks,

Happy Christmas; I hope everybody has had a good Christmas. There are a few matches today, but most are hard to call and offer no real value. Right lets get straight to it!!!!

West Ham Vs West Brom

These two teams are in a poor run of form. West Ham have won 1/10 matches and have scored in 9/18 matches and kept 8/18 clean sheets. West Brom have won 1/10 matches and have scored in 12/18 matches and kept 4/18 clean sheets.

West Ham's home form reads W4D3L5 for the last 12 matches. They have scored in 7/12. West Brom away from home have W2D5L5 for the last 12 matches. They have scored in 7/12

West Ham have won 1/6 home matches and West Brom have won 0/6 matches.

The last 10 matches between the two clubs have produced 5 draws.

West Ham do shade the stats, but I can't trust either team and there appears to be no real value in the match odds market

Over/unders also appears to offer no real value

Aston Villa Vs Swansea

Aston Villa have won 2/10 matches and Swansea have won 2/10 matches. Aston Villa have lost the last 4 and Swansea have lost 2 and drawn 2 of the last 4.

Aston Villa at home have W3D2L7 of the last 12 matches, they have scored in 6/12 matches and conceded in 10/12 matches. Swansea away have W4D1L7 of the last 12 matches, they have scored in 6/12 and conceded in 10/12 matches, so both teams are very even.

Looking at the H2H's, there have been 2 draws in the last 10 matches, but the more relevant last 4 H2H's have yielded 2 draws and 1 win each.

The graded analysis for Aston Villa has W4D6L1 and for Swansea W4D4L6.

There appears to be no real value in the match market.

Over/unders:- 7/12 matches at home for Aston Villa have yielded under 2.5 goals and 8/12 matches away for Swansea have yielded under 2.5 goals. so there could be a bit of value in under 2.5 goals.

I will back under 2.5 goals

Hull Vs Fulham

Hull have won 2/10 matches, with no wins in the last 5, with 3 draws. They have scored in 11/18 matches and conceded in 13/18
Fulham have won 2/10 matches and have had 2 wins in the last 5. They have scored in 13/18 matches and conceded in 15/18 matches.

Hull have a W4D3L2 record at home and have scored in 6/9 matches and conceded in 4/9 matches. Hull have the joint best defence in the league
Fulham away have W4D1L7 and have scored in 6/12 matches and conceded in 10/12 matches.

The H2H's have yielded 3 draws in the last 10, but no draws in the last 7.

There is value in LTD @3.5, but Hull don't really score enough goals for me. So I will leave this one alone.

Over/Unders:- 3/10 H2H's have yielded over 2.5 goals

7/9 matches at home for Hull have been under 2.5 goals and 6/12 away for Fulham have been under 2.5 goals so I think there could be a bit of value in backing under 2.5 goals

I will back under 2.5 goals.

Man City Vs Crystal Palace

Cutting a long story short here the stats are all massively in Man City's favour and no real value.

I may look at backing over 3.5 goals as there maybe a small bit of value in that one

Norwich Vs Man Utd

Norwich have W3D3L4 of the last 10 matches and have scored in 12/18 matches and conceded in 12/18 matches.
Man Utd have W6D2L2 of the last 10 matches and have scored in 14/18 matches and conceded in 14/18 matches.

Norwich at home have W5D3L4 and scored in 10/12 matches and conceded in 8/12 matches
Man Utd away have W5D5L2 and scored in 11/12 matches and conceded in 11/12 matches.
Man Utd are the third best away team in the premier league.

The last 10 H2H's have seen 1 draw with 2 Norwich wins and 7 Man Utd wins.
At Norwich it is a bit more even with 2 Norwich wins and 3 Man Utd wins in the last 5.

Norwich have won 2 of the last 3 at home to Man Utd

However, looking at the graded analysis Norwich have W2D1L6, scoring in 7/9 matches and conceding in 6/9 matches.
Man Utd have W11D3L1 and scored in 14/15 matches and conceded in 7/15 matches.

Man Utd have started to find a bit of form of late, the LTD odds are 4.5, which I want to do, but unfortunately there is no value. There is value in backing Norwich and the last 3 H2H's at Norwich could suggest this might be worthwhile, but I just can't trust them, so I will leave this one alone.

Cardiff Vs Sunderland

Cardiff have W2D3L5 for the last 10 matches. They have scored in 9/18 matches and conceded in 13/18 matches. Cardiff have won 1 in the last 6 and lost 4.
Sunderland have W3D3L4 for the last 10 matches. They have scored in 10/18 matches and conceded in 13/18 matches. Sunderland have won 1 in the last 6 , but only lost 2.
Cardiff at home have W3D2L4 and scored in 5/9 matches and conceded in 6/9 matches.
Sunderland away have W2D3L7 and scored in 5/12 matches and conceded in 8/12 matches. Sunderland are the 3rd worst away side in the league/

The H2H's have yielded 3/10 draws, but 2 of them were pre-1980. So only 1/6 draws.

I will LTD in this one @3.4 as there is value.