Well hopefully this one will be a cracker as Ath Madrid are playing really well this year.
Ath Madrid's last 18 matches read W15D1L1. They have scored in 16/17 and conceded in 9/17 matches. They have scored 46 goals and conceded 11 goals.
Barcelona's last 18 matches read W15D1L1. They have scored in 15/17 and conceded in 9/17 matches. They have scored 49 goals and conceded 12 goals.
Ath Madrid have won 5 of the last 6 and drew 1.
Barcelona have won 5 of the last 6 and lost 1
Ath Madrid have the best home record in the league with W9D0L0
Barcelona have the best away record in the league with W7D1L1
Ath Madrid's last 12 home matches read W9D1L2. They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 6/12 matches. They have scored 35 goals and conceded 10 goals.
Barcelona' last 12 away matches read W9D2L1. They have scored in 10/12 and conceded in 6/12 matches. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 9 goals.
The last 10H2H's read H2D0A8
At Ath Madrid H2D0A3
Since 2002/2003 there have only been 4/22 draws (18%). However, the two matches in the cup this year were draws.
The graded analysis for Ath Madrid reads W2D2L4. They have scored in 7/8 and conceded in 5/8 matches. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 11 goals.
The graded analysis for Barcelona reads W3D3L1. They have scored in 6/7 and conceded in 6/7 matches. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 9 goals.
There is value in LTD, but the teams are quite even with no clear cut favourite. There is actually value in backing Ath Madrid and Barcelona. I think I might risk a small trade on backing Ath Madrid as this season they appear to be the real deal and are at home.
I will back Ath Madrid @3.05 for £4.64. If Barcelona score 1st I will look to lay them for a lability of £4.64.
HT/FT Score:- No Value
Overs/unders:- Looking at the H2H's and the last 12 results home vs away there does appear to be value in backing over 2.5 goals.
I will back over 2.5 goals @1.87 for £11.60
Ath Madrid played really well but ultimately the deadlock was not broken and my small back of 1% of my bank on Ath Madrid was unsuccesful. With 15 minutes to go I also did a small LTD as Barcelona started to look more threating. I lost £7.64
The over 2.5 goals trade was unsuccesful and I lost £11.60.
So overall the last match of the day resulted in me posting a small loss for the day of £2.41
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