Montpellier Vs Monaco

Hi Folks,

A couple of matches this evening:-

Montpellier Vs Monaco

Montpellier's last 18 matches read W2D10L6. They have scored in 9/18 and conceded in 15/18. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 21 goals
Monaco's last 18 matches read W11D5L2. They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 10/18. They have scored 27 goals and conceded 13 goals.
Montpellier have won 0 of the last 6, drawing 3 and lost 3.
Monaco have won 5 of the last 6, losing 1 (The last match)
Montpellier have the 4th worst home record (W2D5L3)
Monaco have the 2nd best away record (W5D3L1)
Montpellier's last 12 home matches read W3D6L3. They have scored in 6/12 matches and conceded in 9/12 matches. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 10 goals.
Monaco's last 9 away matches read W5D3L1. They have scored in 8/9 matches and conceded in 5/9 matches.They have scored 14 goals and conceded 7 goals.

The last 11H2H's read H0D4A7 (36% Draws)
At Montpellier H0D2A3 (40% Draws)

Monaco should win this one and the stats do support them. but there is no value in LTD or laying Montpellier. Also looking at the H2H draws I can't LTD, although it is worth bearing in mind that Monaco are a totally different team now.

HT/FT Scores:- No Value here either

Over/Unders:- There maybe some value here in backing under 2.5 goals.

I will back under 2.5 goals @1.71 for £11.03. I will look to hedge out at around 1.2 or HT, whichever comes first. If there is an early goal I will back under 2.5 goals again for £11.03 and wait until HT. If a second goal goes in before HT I hedge out for a loss.

The trade was successful and I hedged out at @1.21 around 5 minutes before half time for a profit of £4.33