Hi Folks,
Happy New Year to everybody; I hope 2014 is a good year for trading for everybody.
Right, we have one early match which I will post my thoughts on. I will be hopefully trading this match, but not sure about the 3pm matches as out for a New Years meal, I will try to post my thoughts on them matches as well though.
Swansea Vs Man City
On paper this looks like a bit of a forgone conclusion, but lets have a look at some of the stats
Swansea's last 18 matches read W5D6L7. They have scored in 12/18 and conceded in 13/18. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 21 goals
Man City's last 18 matches read W12D2L4. They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 12/18. They have scored 50 goals and conceded 21 goals
Swansea have only won 1 of their last 6 matches and have no win in the last 5 (D3L2).
Man City have won 5 of their last 6 matches and drawn 1. So undefeated.
Swansea have 2 wins out of 9 at home this season
Man City have 3 wins out of 9 away this season, although they have only lost 1 in the last 4 away.
Swansea's last 12 home matches read (W2D6L4). Scored in 8/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 17 goals
Man City's last 12 away matches read (W4D3L5). Scored in 9/12 and conceded in 9/12. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 18 goals.
H2H's:- There is 1 in 10 draws, 3 Swansea wins and 6 Man City wins. At Swansea there has only been 1 draw and 3 Swansea wins and 1 Man City win.
Looking at the graded analysis:- Swansea have W2D4L4 and scored in 7/10 and conceded in 8/10. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 14 goals
Man City have W8D5L3 and scored in 12/16 and conceded in 11/16. They have scored 27 goals and conceded 17 goals
There is no value in laying the draw here and I can't back Swansea with their current record. There is value in laying Man City as they do look quite short and have several key players out. They were not comfortable against crystal Palace.
I will risk a small lay on Man City.
I will lay City @1.71 for £14.10 and exit @3.42
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