Sunderland Vs Southampton

Sunderland's last 18 matches read (W4D4L10). They have scored in 10/18 and conceded in 13/18 matches. They have scored 17 goals and conceded 29 goals.
Southampton's last 18 matches read (W7D5L6). They have scored in 15/18 and conceded in 11/18 matches. They have scored 25 goals and conceded 21 goals.
Sunderland have only won 1 in the last 6 (W2D3L1)
Southampton have won 2 in the last 6, and lost 3 and drew 1.
Sunderland this season at home (W2D1L7). No wins in the last 4, 3 losses and 1 draw. They have the worst home record in the league.
Southampton this season away (W3D3L4). They have only won 1 in the last 4 away (L2W1D1)
Sunderland at home in the last 12 reads (W2D3L7). They have scored in 9/12 and conceded in 10/12 matches. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 19 goals.
Southampton away in the last 12 reads (W3D4L5). They have scored in 9/12 and conceded in 9/12 matches. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 13 goals.

The Last 11H2H's reads H3D5A3 (45% Draws)
At Sunderland H0D4A1 (80% Draws)

The graded analysis for Sunderland at home reads W6D5L1. They have scored in 10/12 and conceded in 5/12 matches. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 7 goals.
The graded analysis for Southampton away reads W3D2L1. They have scored in 5/6 and conceded 3/6 matches. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 7 goals.

There is no value in LTD in this one. There is a bit of value with laying Sunderland as the H2H's are not great and their home form is the worst in the league, but recently they have started to turn the corner and I have a problem with Southampton with all the turmoil with the chairman leaving and the player and manager unrest. I will leave the match market alone.

HT/FT Score:- No Value

Over/Under  2.5 goals. Sunderland at home have had 6/12 being over 2.5 goals and Southampton away have had 3/12 over 2.5 goals. Also only 3 of the last 11 matches in the H2H's have been over 2.5 goals. The only fly in the ointment is the graded analysis were 6/12 of Sunderlands' matches against D grade have been over 2.5 goals. However, 4/6 Southampton's away matches against D grade have been over 2.5 goals.

Even so I think I will take this one on based on the H2H's and current form.

I will lay over 2.5 goals @2.3 for £7.70. If there is an early goal I will lay over 2.5 goals again for another £10 liability. I will look to hedge out @1.2 or HT for a profit. If 2 goals go in for the first half I will hedge out.

Well got this one totally wrong as well!!! I doubled up when Southampton went 1-0 after 8 minutes. It was looking good after 30 mins. However, 2 goals in 2 minutes did not let me hedge out and I lost £20.02