Saturday, 8 March 2014

3pm Premiership Matches

Cardiff Vs Fulham

This is a big clash with the two bottom teams in the league. Both will be desperate for a win, but will they get one.
There is value in LTD based on current form and only 1 draw in the last 19 H2H's. However, prior to this season, they haven't met since 1998/99 season
The main worry for me in this one is both teams average less than a goal per game home vs away. I think I will leave this one alone as both teams cannot be trusted.

Norwich Vs Stoke

Both teams are very poor. There is value in backing Norwich but I can't really trust them and LTD has no value either. There is value in laying Stoke as they have not won a single match away in the last 12 matches. However, Stoke did beat Arsenal in the last match and they will be 'buzzing'. Also in their last match Norwich were wining 1-0 against Aston Villa and conceded 4 goals in around 20 minutes. I think I will leave this alone as I just can't trust them.

Crystal Palace Vs Southampton

Crystal Palace's last 18 matches reads (W7D3L8). They have scored in 10/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 18 goals.
Southampton's last 18 matches reads (W5D5L8). They have scored in 15/18 and conceded in 14/18. They have scored 27 goals and conceded 31 goals
Crystal Palace have won 3 of their last 6 matches, drew 1 and lost 2.However, they have only won 1 in the last 4.
Southampton have won 2 of their last 6 matches, drew 2 and lost 2. However, they have only won 1 in the last 4.
Crystal Palace's last 12 home matches reads (W5D2L5). They have scored in 7/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 15 goals.
Southampton's last 12 away matches reads (W4D4L4). They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 15 goals.
Crystal Palace have won 3 of their last 4 at home, losing 1.
Southampton have won 2 of their last 4 away, drawing 1 and losing 1.

The last 11H2H's reads H3D3A5 (27% Draws)
At crystal Palace H2D1A2 (20% Draws)

Since 1992/93 reads H3D7A9 (37% Draws)
At Crystal Palace H2D4A3 (45% Draws)

There is value in LTD, but slight concern with H2H's and Crystal Palace don't score lots of goals..
There is value in laying Southampton and with a few of their players on international duty mid-week and there odds look way too short, I will be taking this one on.

Lay Southampton @2.24 for £5.00

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