Man Utd Vs Aston Villa

Hi folks,

Sorry I have not had chance to post for awhile, I have been busy working shifts.

Here are my thoughts for the early kick-ff today

Man Utd's last 18 matches reads (W9D2L7). They have scored in 13/18 and conceded in 10/18. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 20 goals.
Villa's last 18 matches reads (W5D4L9). They have scored in 11/18 and conceded in 14/18. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 28 goals.
Man Utd have won 3 of the last 6, drawing 1 and losing 2. They have scored in 3/6 and conceded in 2/6. They average 1.17gpg and concede 1gpg
Villa have won 2 of the last 6, drawing 1 and losing 3. They have scored in 3/6 and conceded in 4/6. They average 1gpg and conceded 1.33gpg
Man Utd's last 12 home matches reads (W5D2L5). They have scored in 8/12 and conceded in 9/12. They have scored 15 goals and conceded 16 goals. They average 1.25gpg and concede 1.33gpg
Villa's last 12 away matches reads (W3D5L4). They have scored in 7/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 13 goals. They average 0.92gpg and concede 1.08gpg.
Man Utd's away form is the best in the league, but their home form is very poor this season which I just don't understand. Looking at the stats above and the odds Man Utd are far too short and the LTD odds are far too high.

However, then you look at the following:

The graded analysis for Man Utd reads (W12D2L2). They have scored in 16/16 and conceded in 9/16. They have scored 35 goals and conceded 16 goals.. They average 2.19gpg and concede 1gpg.
The graded analysis for Man Utd reads (W2D0L8). They have scored in 5/10 and conceded in 10/10. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 33 goals. They average 0.90gpg and concede 3.30gpg.

The last 11H2H's reads H7D3A1
At Old Trafford H4D0A1

Since 2000 the H2H's read H21D5A1
At Old Trafford reads H11D1A1

So I can see why they odds for the Man Utd win are very short and the LTD odds are very high.

I can find no value in this match from the start. I may look to LTD later in the match when the odds are lower, or lay Aston Villa if they score first as Villa have only won 1 at Old Trafford in the last 13 matches.

It is hard to call, as Man Utd are going through a transition period